i somehow do not think andy murray will reach the finals. and i disagree about soderling beating nadal as well - nadal will win that one, in 4 or less.

Wohhoaa!!! I heard enough, I am overpsyched and impatienly bored

LET THE GAMES BEGIN !!!

Like Rafa did at RG, he buldozed everybody and won the crown. At Wimbledon, he will lawnmow and shear everybody to win the crown.

God save all men in his path!

Vamos Rafa !!!

It will be Nadal over federer OR Federer over Nadal in the finals.

No other outcome is possible

Raindrops

What planet are you from? It won't be like Roland Garros that Nadal will lawnmow and shear everyone to win the crown. There are plenty of good players on Grass. Roland Garros was so boring and very very predictable.

NADAL OVER FEDERER IN 4

VAMOS!!!!

Don't agree on some of Ricky's predictions:

1)Granollers had stretched Sod to four sets at Wimby last year and he had beaten Sod in five sets this AO. So, I think Sod has to go to four or five sets to beat Granollers.

2) If Berdych has to beat Stan, he'll have to do it in three or four sets. If he is stretched to five sets, he'll lose; his many records said so. So Berdych in four or Stan in five.

3) Fed to beat Tipsy in four sets. Tipse won't go down so easily in straight sets. He is always inspired when playing against top players.

4) I'll take Verdasco over Tsonga in five sets. Verdasco can play on grass, remember he reached the Nottingham final and lost to Karlovic in 2008, and lost to Karlovic again last year at Wimby in the fourth round. Tsonga lost to Gonzo I think in the third round at last year's Wimby.

5) Baghdatis over Sod in five sets. Baggy can play on grass! (2006 semifinalist)

6) Murray over Querry in four sets, I think Querry can fight and get one set off Murray. Murray sometimes can have problems with big hitters.

7) Rafa over Youzhny in three sets instead of four.

8) QF - Either Fed over Berdych or vice versa in four sets. If Fed had it easy in the earlier rounds and not tested, and if Berdych played like he was at Miami, it may be a close fight. Most likely, Fed will win.

9) QF - Hewitt to beat Roddick this time in 5 sets. Hewitt seems more in form than Roddick.

10) QF - Verdasco over Murray in five sets (big hitter problem again), something like the AO 09 or the match between Stan and Murray last year (but with Verdasco winning).

11) QF - Rafa over Baghdatis in three or four sets.

12) SF - Hewitt over Berdych in five sets or Fed over Hewitt in four sets.

13) SF - Rafa over Verdasco in three or four sets.

14) Final - Rafa over Hewitt in four sets or Rafa over Fed in five sets!

Sod won't make the quarters.

that is bold predictions! what a teaser this time RD!

Ricky is this a well thought out prediction? Or a ploy to put the RD jinx on Murray? What is the logic behind choosing Sod over Nadal when we saw what happened two weeks back?

Sod's has played 15 matches at Wimbledon and he has lost 7 of them, plus he's only got past the last 32 once - last year, and guess who wasn't there, if he had run into Nadal last year he may not even have made that.

Ricky is trying to repeat the senario at OZ, with Nadal only making the quarters and Murray and Fed meeting in the final, but the logic seems a little bit up the spout, if you don't mind me saying so:

Rafa's winning record this year is 40-5, Sod 27-10, Fed 27-8 and Murray 17-9, yet they all have a chance to do better at Wimbledon than Rafa. Even after Rafa gave Sod what for at RG barely a week ago, a guy who beat Fed in 4.

I think the biggest question marks in this year's Wibledon are Murray and Djokovic.
Murray actually has a decent chance of reaching the finals, but only if he suddenly starts playing his best tennis.Based on the current form, Querrey has a good chance of beating Murray in 4th round.
The same goes for Novak.He can reach semis if he somehow fixes his serve and starts playing good.Otherwise, he can't and get over Hewit. in 4th round.

tennisball, RG this year was certainly not boring, esp the match between Sod and Fed; and Almagro vs Rafa. The semifinal between Sod and Berdych was boring because of the big serving big hitting non clay court tennis on the clay, but the outcome of that match was certainly not predictable, for it went the distance. The semifinal between Rafa and Melzer was interesting as we saw some sublime tennis from Rafa and the craftiness of Melzer, though we could predict the outcome of that match.

The RG final was certainly not boring, as many were looking forward to that match. Rafa haters and detractors of course were unhappy over the outcome of that match, for they wanted to see a nemesis for Rafa who would place the final nail into Rafa's 'coffin', so that Rafa would never come back to threaten anyone in future.
For all the Rafa fans, of course the final was definitely NOT boring, as we saw the revival of the King of Clay, and his supremacy over his supposed 'nemesis'. No more doubts who is better than who now on clay, and on top of all these, Rafa won his 5th RG crown, his 7th slam title and regained the no. 1 ranking. Filled with so much drama and emotions, how could this RG be considered boring??

Federer over nadal in 4 tough sets in the final

you want to hear from me??
Its time for Law of Averages to keep his pact with a certain American..
So, it will be roddick over nadal in 5 (gut feeling)
nadal over roddick in 4 (wishlist)

clayking, I think Roddick won't get pass Hewitt if Roddick plays the way he played at Queen's. He looked really rusty there. I don't know whether he can find his form in time. He may have to get past S & V king Llodra, and may be Cilic, before reaching Hewitt. Even if he reaches the final and meets Rafa there, I doubt he'll beat Rafa. Rafa in a slam final is very hard to beat. Rafa has being to 9 finals, winning 7. His success rate is 78%. Fed's success rate is 73% (16 slams/22 finals).

Ricky, i have to be honest. i am surprised at your picks. i never thought i would see you pick soderling over nadal and i wondered if you could give more of an indepth analysis into this? Over the past few months you haven't been very accurate with your predictions and whilst i know this is a bit of fun, you do put a lot of effort into providing these picks and I am very interested for your reasoning here?

you have also been quite critical of federer's game recently and so again, why do you think that he is going to pick off murray? (all of this does make for a great read!).

ricky, the other thing, why aren't you doing this round by round like you did for the FO? I haven't seen you do a pick like this from start to finish - is there a reason for this?

Well if we consider the grass prep tournament form, we might see becker in a wimbledon final again..
american dreams may be ignited by querrey..
we may have a first time ukrainian wimbledon champ..
but these things won't happen..
so, the warm up tournament form does not suggest anything..
I for one would be happier to see a rafa hewitt final, since I like hewitt more....
but the gut feeling is a rod-nadal final..
and rod will have the edge over rafa..
the only person rafa has an edge over in the wimby final will be fed (and hewitt too)
but rod will be preferred over rafa if they are in finals..
of course it is just my gut feeling..
and gut feelings have no explanation..
my wishlist is actually fed defeat hewitt in 4, i mistyped it as rod..

Federer over nadal in 4 tough sets in the final

saxenanalin , 6/20/10 6:07 PM


In your dreams!


VAMOS!

I'm going to be very boring and wish for a Federer/Nadal final ...

clayking, Roddick is really rusty at Queen's. How can you compare him with Becker, Querry? Becker and Querry ain't veterans are they? I'm talking about a veteran against a veteran here, ie Roddick vs Hewitt. A Llodra or a Cilic may not beat Roddick but they may stretch him to five sets, and all these may take a toll on Roddick at the later rounds of the draw.

In last year's final, I know that when it gets to five sets and the match get stretched beyond the normal 6-4 or 7-5 score in the final set, Roddick will be at a disadvantage! Why? Because he has to pay the price of getting stretched in the earlier rounds of the tournament. He went to five sets with Melzer and Hewitt, four with Murray. When the match gets to who can serve better to hold serve, Roddick will falter as physically he would be more tired than Fed and his concentration will lapse at some point.

Love this pick!

ohhh the law of averages again. AGAIN? I thought I was satisfied during Queens?

Clayking, I didn't resist it the first time you apply the law of averages during RG, instead I wished the LoA catches Rafa at Queens which it did exactly happen. Now I am going to use the same luck in wishing to have the LoA be differed later in a 250 tournament BUT NOT in Wimbledon.

I am as confident as at RG for Wimbledon because a fully fit Rafa means, FOOT SPEED is guaranteed in full stride.

* I thought IT was satisfied during Queens?

i think nadal will streamroll the field at wimbledon this year. hes become a much better all surface player since he won in 2008. i just finished watching da 2008 final and when i compare to him now. hes even more aggressive which can only be bad for his rivals and comes into the net whenever he can. hes gonna blow da field away and hes gonna win without dropping a set.

vmk1 - what does the result at the French Open have anything to do with Wimbledon? The French was played on clay, if you recall. Nadal won't be able to do that to Soderling on grass. I mean he almost lost to Soderling at Wimbledon back when Soderling was a nobody.

maxi - i do this for every Grand Slam. I have never done it round by round.

Sod may have problem getting through the first few rounds. Sod is a nobody in 2007, however the Rafa of 2007 is also not the Rafa of 2010. The Rafa now knows how to win at Wimbledon. Sod won't be able to stop Rafa, just like he won't be able to stop Fed. Both Fed and Rafa are much better than Sod on grass, and they will find a way to win. That's my opinion and Ricky may not agree.

luckystar - i dont agree, altho i dont necessarily disagree, either.

the people whom I disagree with are the people who make the argument that Nadal is going to crush Soderling just because he crushed him at the French Open. That doesn't make any sense.

you can make arguments for Nadal beating Soderling, but that isn't one of them.

Ricky, that was then, this is now, Rafa has matured, he's upgraded his game.

How can you say that Rafa taking the first 2 sets 6.4 6.4 then Sod winning a tie-break to 7, and taking the 3rd set 6.4 and Rafa winning the 5th set 7.5 was Soderling nearly beating Rafa? Sod has only made it past round 32 at Wimbledon once, and Rafa has made the final 3 consecutive times, winning the title once.

Totally illogical.

nadline - uhhhhh, losing 7-5 in the fifth does not qualify as "nearly" beating someone????!??!?!?!?!??!

what is your definition of nearly beating someone!??!?!?!?!

there is no way hewitt beats novak in best of 5, simply no way.

Ricky my definition of nearly beating someone was last year's final between Federer and Roddick - 5-7, 7-6(6), 7-6(5), 3-6, 16-14; yet you are so sure that Federer will beat Roddick in 4 just like that this year, at least Rafa took the first 2 sets against Sod, and only narrowly lost the 3rd set tie-break to 7 in 2007.

I won't be making the argument that Rafa convincingly beating Sod on clay means that he can beat him in Wimbledon. However, I still do not agree with the prediction of Sod beating Rafa. Rafa is an excellent grass court player. That's how he got to three Wimbledon finals, the third time being the charm. There may be some question as to his game on grass, since he hasn't played on it for two years. What makes Rafa so hard to beat at slams are the intangibles, the things that don't show up on paper. It's his mental toughness, tenacity, will to win, rising to the challenge.

I think Rafa will view this draw as a great challenge and rise to the occasion. Rafa thrives on the battle, the tougher the better. IF and I do mean IF, Soderling meets Rafa in the quarterfinals, I believe that Rafa will prevail in another tough four or five set match. I just don't see Rafa letting Sod get the better of him.

There are a few other picks with which I disagree. I am not convinced that Murray will get to the finals, even with his easy draw. Maybe being at Wimbledon and feeling the moment will bring out his best again, but I just have not seen enough good tennis from him to be sure that he can turn it around. I am not sure Murray will get past Querrey or Tsonga.

I agree with Djoker's probable ouster in the fourth round, however, it could be even sooner if he plays as poorly as he has been of late.

Roddick would normally be a given for the semis or finals, but I just don't feel sure about his prospects. If he can play himself into form in the early rounds, then he should definitely make a good run here. I am going to keep an eye on him to see how he does in the early rounds. Right now I am not convinced that he has what it takes to go deep again. I hope that I am wrong.

It's at times like this that I always remember something Rafa said about predictions as to who will win a tournament. He said that anyone can say whatever they want, but it has to happen on the court. That's the only thing that counts.

But Ricky you are picking against a guy who has the best win loss record this year. A guy who has made three finals of Wimby and as a confidence player Rafa's confidence must be sky high after the drubbing of Sod at the French. And Sod's best results have not even come on grass but still you say Sod gets the better of Rafa who is enjoying his best season.
All this only smacks of an illogical hunch,thats all. Maybe if it was the USO I could have digested it.

it's not a hunch. I don't see why people would be so surprised by a Nadal loss. Ever since his mid-season disaster in 2009, he has done NOTHING on any surface other than clay. NOTHING.

So i fail to see how people can just ASSUME that Nadal will all of a sudden win Wimbledon.

At least he has been reaching the semis and finals of the non clay tourneys, a certain Murray has been struggling like there is no tom but he is supposed to reach the finals.

Ricky, you don't seem to check the facts before your pronouncements, on the Rankings history currently on the ATP website, these are the facts:

Rafa 4 wins, 2 finals, 6 SF, 3 Qtr, RR 0

Fed 2 wins, 3 finals, 2 Qtr, 1 Rnd 16 , 3 Rnd 32, RR SF

If Rafa has done nothing in the last 52 weeks, what would you say about Federer?

I am not saying that Rafa will win Wimbledon, I don't do predictions, but I expect people who do, to base it on the facts, or say it's just a hunch. But I cannot accept it when the facts are so at odds with the predictions, and it is claimed that the predictions are based on facts.

So do you accept what I call nearly beating someone.

vmk1 - well the difference is that Murray is thrilled to go from clay to grass. Should solve most if not all of his problems.

@ricky, how much has nadal played on grass since mid 09 ?? he has played NOTHING ..he has been performing very well on grass in the past and why shudnt we expect him to perform well? its not only nadal fans but experts from bbc/sky/espn/euro/tennis.com are mostly giving votes to rafa.... nadal has been improving on grass every year he plays so i expect the same just becoz he is brimming with confidence.

he is going to oust soderling, i dnt have any doubts.

RD, good picks! actually very realistic and logical picks! of the semifinal-players, anyone of them could get to the final.

and of course nadal CANNOT crush soderling here...RG result doesnt have much relevance other than a BIG confidence booster...remember how RG 08 gave rafa the edge to win wimb 08... soderling is tough on grass due to his serving and big hitting but rafa will find a way...

Ricky, don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.

Hah Ricky, when you said that 'Rafa has done NOTHING on any surface other than clay.' then I must say I don't agree with your argument. Why? Because I also didn't see others winning anything on other surfaces besides hard court. Only those four guys that won the recent grass court tournaments, did win on grass! (Hewitt, Querry, Llodra, Stakorvsky) So if you argue that Sod or Murray will beat Rafa based on your above mentioned logic, then I would also apply the same logic to Sod/Murray - Sod didn't even do a warm up tournament, an exho maybe? Same with Baghdatis, Tsonga, Verdasco (maybe they all did some exho matches); Almagro injured himself in the second round match at Eastbourne; Murray, Roddick & Nole were knocked out in the third round at Queen's. Only Fed, Hewitt and Llodra of the veterans reached the final of a grass court tournament, and all of them are in the opposite half of the draw from Rafa. So Rafa reaching the final is a possibility, though not a sure thing. If Rafa reaches the final, he'll be difficult to beat, as we all know his record in slam finals.

nadline,

We are on the same side, so why the defensiveness? I don't think Rafa beating Sod is a foregone conclusion either. Has everyone here forgotten their 2007 Wimbledon five set marathon? Sod is an even better player now. I don't doubt Rafa's prowess on grass for one minute. Everyone here knows how I feel about Rafa - no one should ever write him off, ever! However, I am not blind, either. I can recognize a threat when I see one.

I believe that Rafa will ultimately prevail should he meet Sod in the quarterfinals. It will probably be a more competitive match than at the RG final, provided Sod is playing well. He has been a bit up and down in recent months. Also, everyone is thinking a bit too far ahead for my liking. Rafa has some challenges before he gets to the quarterfinals. That is where my focus is for now. It's also far from a certainty that Sod will even get there, given the opponents he has in his early round matches.

I prefer to wait until it happens.

NNY, I just think that it's too easy to pitch others against Nadal, and I'm NOT predicting that he will win anything, I just find it amazing that so little achieved by others are held up against the light to dampen the great achievements that Rafa has, I just think it's weird. After all Verdasco gave Rafa a tougher test at the AO couple of years ago, but he hasn't even come close to beating him since on any surface.

Ricky, I look forward to your response tomorrow, it's bedtime in England now.

Hewitt over Nole.... that's a joke isn't it Ricky..?
And Roddick will be there... and Nole will get his revenge...
Nole in SF... against who??? ...I don't know but it won't be Fed... not this year and not with his present game.

zare - you think DJOKOVIC is going to be Hewitt? HOW? Nobody else does.

I can understand Ricky's pick of Soderling over Nadal. It will be a VERY TIGHT match and Soderling can surely win. At the F.O, Soderling lost because he couldn't finish points against Nadal. Typically he had an opening but Nadal frustrated him with his movement, and retrieving causing Soderling to go for more and miss on the 4th or 5th shot in the point after being in control . In that sense it was Nadal's legs and heart which broke Soderling's spirit.

The problem on grass is that the points will be much shorter, Soderling's shots will penetrate more and Nadal can't slide around on it, as he does on clay. It?s very hard to slide and recover on grass. On clay, Rafa can slide and hit a squash shot back in play if he?s taken out of position by his opponent?s big cross court backhand We saw him do that (numerous times) against Gulbis in Rome and Soderling at Roland Garros. On grass, however, if a big hitter goes after his cross court backhand and makes it, chances are he?s winning the rally and Nadal cannot retrieve it and recover for the next shot. That is why Dennis Istomin, troubled Rafa at Queens. Istomin served terrific and his backhand was really firing.

Plus Soderling's record at the F.O notwithstanding, I really do believe that he's a better player on faster surfaces where his shots penetrate the court much more. So If he gets a slam, I would think it's UsO or Wimb - not F.O. In other words, Soderling is a better player on grass than many give him credit for. Ever since he improved last year, his game has the potential to be HUGE on grass. It took some scintillating tennis from Fed to take him down at Wimb 09, in an extremely close match which turned on a bunch of pts.

Again, I'm not saying Nadal can't (or won't) beat Soderling. Of course he's the favorite. But to do so, it will be a much bigger challenge than it was on clay. Nadal will have to serve consistently well, his ROS will need to be much better (than it was at Queens), and he will need to be MORE decisive with his backhand and volley. I think the Sod-Nadal match will go right down to the wire. Anyway, this is a tough ask for Nadal at Wimb this year, with the kind of draw he has..

nadline,

I agree with your last response to me. It's all good, we are on the same side. Sometimes I like to think out loud and it may come across the wrong way. Have no doubt that I agree with you!

imjimmy,

You made some interesting points about how the game is different when you go from clay to grass. However, the one thing that you have not factored into your argument, is Rafa's superior mental toughness. He is quite experienced when it comes to tough matches on grass. It's not for nothing that he made the finals at Wimbledon for three straight years and on his third try, beat the best grass court player. However, there are things that you don't see on paper and that is what sometimes wins matches at slams, especially when it's a tightly contested one. That is where Rafa will have the clear advantage.

It's not always the one who may have the superior game on grass who wins the match. It's who plays best during the critical points, when the match is on the line. That's when I will take Rafa every time.

Again, we are looking ahead quite a bit. If this matchup happens, it will not happen until the second week. Before this can even occur, there are early round matches to be played.

"zare - you think DJOKOVIC is going to be Hewitt? HOW? Nobody else does."

i do, nole will be(at) hewitt.

rfzr - why not? Hewitt has a better chance against Djokovic in 3 out of 5 than in 2 out of 3.

Nativenewyorker: I agree. Rafa is a champion (a winner) and Soderling isn't, and for that reason alone Nadal should be the favorite. My previous post was just to clarify why it is NOT outlandish to assume that Soderling can beat Nadal. (Since a lot of people seem to think so when Ricky Dimon made the pick).

There can be a convincing case for Soderling too as with any big server on grass. Nadal's biggest liability (one grass) is the one that even Federer suffers from; a red hot big server/big hitter in the zone. Sure, Federer is a better returner but nobody is immune to an Isner/Soderling type of serve when clicking on all cylinders, plus Soderling has the ground game to back it up. The F.O final result will have little to do with the match on grass. Playing on clay vs playing on grass is almost like a different sport.. I still maintain that Soderling is the TOUGHEST opponent on QF in the draw, regardless of who he faces (and that includes Federer). I believe that the match with Soderling will tell us where Rafa is at form-wise. If he wins convincingly, I don't think Murray or any other player will stop him winning Wimbledon.

simply coz novak is a better player and hewitt won't be able to keep the intensity in 5 sets.

intensity is Hewitt's best asset

it gives him a huge advantage over Djokovic. If it goes 5, Hewitt will almost certainly win. Tho I don't think Djoker will take it that far.

who do you think can upset novak? rohus, montanes, chela before the 4th round? if he beats rochus tomorrow he'll beat hewitt.

Seriously...SODERLING to beat Nadal....not happening!
Soderling is sooooo inconsistent. He has one good tournament and one bad. He isnt getting passed Rafa, if he gets that far and I predict he wont. It wouldnt surprise me at all if Soderling is out before he meets Rafa, and Baghdatis may be the player to do it. It could also happen through injury (just a feeling).
All it takes is for Soderling to be off his game and the other player to be on and he will lose. The fourth round is when Baghdatis usually peaks.

Still I am not concerned about Rafa, at all!

@luckystar
you got it a bit wrong. Verdasco lost to karlovic in the 4th round of Wimbledon in 4 sets,but guess what,Tsonga lost to Karlovic as well in the 3rd round of Wimbly in 4 sets. So if Karlovics a constant,both men are even. I would probably pick Tsonga over Verdasco due to Tsonga displaying better form in the Boodles challenge.(but i could be wrong ofc.)

The way nadal was playing in the french open final will be completely different to how he will play against soderling in the qf if they both get there. nadal will be slicing the ball much more and the ball doesnt bounce as high as FO. also he will flatten da shots out and if he serves as well as he did FOF then i think he will ease to victory. im not sayin rafa is unbeatable but if he plays his best he is the best even vesus the mighty FED. i also think its gonna be nadal v federer bcos even though every1s saying there have become shit they have won da 1st 2 GSs of the yr and for that they deserve massive respect.

im hoping the two of them show the doubters that they put on the best show in the world on 4th of july and nobody can match them

I too think hewitt will topple djokovic...hewitt's intensity is surely an asset to watch out for...

off target and for VRAEL and CLAYKING
congrats on india beating pakistan in that nerve-racking cricket match :) , badhai ho aap dono ko :D

""Seriously...SODERLING to beat Nadal....not happening! ""

It's statements like these that make me despair. Really how can you make that claim with so much certainity? By no means, am I a fan of Soderling, but let's give the guy his due. He's lost ONLY to Federer and Nadal in 4 of the last 5 slams! You mentioned he's inconsistent. Sure. But he's done well in the slams (except the A.O). Like Federer, Soderling's past form is no guide as to how well he would perform in a slam. He had relatively POOR results before the F.O 2010. How many honestly gave him a chance of reaching the final AGAIN?

The fact is: Soderling's game is MORE suited to grass and faster hardcourts despite his results on clay. Last year he was unfortunate to run into a red-hot Federer at BOTH the Wimbledon and the UsOpen, where he lost in VERY close matches.. He's ONE of the very FEW players having beaten both Federer and Nadal at the slam level. Like it or not, but Soderling will be a consistent threat at the slam level on ALL surfaces. When he's ON, he can be unplayable (as he was in the F.O 2010 QF against Fed).

Am I saying that Soderling will CERTAINLY beat Nadal in the QF? Definitely NOT. But does he have a chance of doing so? Surely he does. Is Ricky's pick of Soderling over Nadal ridiculous? Certainly NOT.

@imjimmy
with the exception of the AO,it has taken a great player to beat him. Him and Del Potro are the only ones to have beaten both Federer and Nadal at a slam. You are right about him running into Federer at the Wimbly and USO(this is when Federer was in good form) and Federer is probably one of the best in the world at dealing with big hitters,and he still made it close. But soderling vs nadal is no guarantee. There are players who can stop it from happening.

imjimmy- I can make that comment with so much certain because my instincts, or whatever you want to call it, are rarely wrong. I predicted that Federer would not only not make it to the FRench Open final, but that he would lose to SOderling and that SOderling would make it to the final, because thats the way the universe rolls and that Rafa in the final would spank him in 3 sets! Everyone laughed out how stupid my predictions sounded, that Roger would lose to SOderling and that Rafa would win so easily!
If you don't believe find the blogs and have a read!

I didnt say Rickys pick was ridiculous, in picking Soderling over Rafa, as that is his opinion. I have come out and expressed mine that SOderling will not beat Nadal if they meet and thats a big if!. Now is this ridiculous? Nope!
We are dealing with a fully fit Rafa, that is a totally different monster than what Soderling beat last year in the French!

Lets just wait and see shall we!

@isabeau
and you also predicted wawrinka to beat federer i believe...sorry if im wrong :P

isabeau77: Fair enough. Let's hope you are right. But I'm not so confident, seeing Nadal hasn't played MUCH on grass in 2 years, and given his form in Queens 2010. As I said before Nadal will need to be much more consistent with both his return of serve and serve, if he is to win Wimbledon. Right now it's a far cry from what it was in 2008.

BTW I agree with Ricky's picks except for one thing. If it's Murray who Fed faces in the final, then the match won't go to 4 sets. Fed will thrash Murray in straights. Of course it could be a different story if Federer faces someone else.

I didnt say I was always right..but I was right at the end result. All I knew was this, that Federer was not going to break Pete Sampras record, in doing so he couldnt get past the quarter finals...that's the sole reason why I picked Wawrinka because I knew Federer would lose before the semis and Wawrkina came before Soderling.

(NB/ SOme insights on how psychics work
The hardest thing for people with psychic abilities to do, is get dates, scores right, because they can change, end results dont.
What psychic do is they see the final result and then they look back so to speak and pick up main occurrences, like they are looking at a timeline. You see it in your head. The big things are easy to pick, the less significant results are harder, they dont appear as clear, its like looking through a fog.)

Whether you believe in psychics or not, this is how I do it.

imjimmy- No one can be 100% right as we are not God/our creator, but for Rafas sake I hope I have seen correctly, I am almost certain I have.

I agree with you jimmy that yes, if was a Murray and Fed final it will be Fed in straight sets.
Again psychic predictions aside, I feel for Murray, as not only has he had a horrid year where form is concerned but he now has extra pressure on him which is immense and I dont think he will be able to handle it and I highly doubt he will find his form in the tournament let alone make it to the finals.

although i'm a huge djokovic fan, tbh i do not see him beating hewitt in the fourth round. lets face it - hewitt won in halle, taking out federer in the final, while nole lost in the second (or third?) round in queens, to xavier malisse. that sentence sort of speaks for itself doesnt it?
however, sometimes players do tend to surprise at slams, so i'll try to be optimistic *fingers crossed*

hewitt may go out to monfils. novak played 1 setter with andy murray and managed to win the practice session and they played some good tennis it is said.

really? awesome..i do like hewitt, but i like nole more :)
why couldnt hewitt be in fed's quarter? or anyone else's? not fair that nole gets both roddick and hewitt :(

mriidula- I couldnt agree more.
Djokovic's quarter is going to be very interesting in deed though I think Roddick may prevail.

imjimmy , 6/21/10 1:06 AM,

I am not going to dispute the fact that Sod can be dangerous for Rafa on surfaces other than clay. I agree with your take on this potential matchup. I wasn't thrilled with Ricky's pick of Sod to beat Rafa should they meet in the quarterfinals, but I can understand his reasons. I just think Rafa has the will and fight to prevail.

I still believe that this potential quarterfinal matchup is far from inevitable. I am not psychic like isabeau, however, there are times when I get a strong gut feeling about a player. It's hard to describe, but it's not as though it comes out of thin air. If a player finds his form and is playing "in the zone", as I like to call it, then sometimes I get the sense that they can beat someone who they have had success against in the past or accomplish an upset. Many times I don't even publicly reveal these hunches, if you will, just because I prefer to keep it to myself. It's not something that happens all the time, so I prefer to go with my overall knowledge of the game, along with recent accomplishments, wins, current playing form, the usual criteria for evaluating the players.

I had a strong sense that Sod was going to beat Fed at RG, but as I confessed to isabeau, I didn't trust my instinct when I made my prediction on this site. When I had the sense that Melzer would beat Djoker, I did publicly make my prediction here. I am not big on predictions overall, because there are so many things that can happen in a slam tournament. It is expected, though, so people come on here and make their calls.

We know that there will be upsets, because it happens in every slam. We could be in for some real surprises at Wimbledon.

isabeau:
yea i think so too. roddick >>> nole, on grass at least.
of course, it might be hewitt vs roddick, in which case i'll be pulling for hewitt.

NNY and imjimmy-
I totally agree that Soderling is dangerous and injimmy I never said he wasnt and quite frankly if I was a player I sure as hell wouldnt want to see him anywhere near my half.

In saying this, something is telling me that Soderling wont do well in this tournament and yes NNY, i too believe that there will be a fair few surprise exists, which I said somewhere else on this forum, as Gulbis, in number 1 and the tournament hasnt even started yet.

Rafans,

No need to panic about Soderling. The picture of Soderling in the mind of "SCARE CREW" is only his big forehand plus Nadal OFFERING "nice" balls ALL THE TIME to Soderling which is ideal for his forehand smash.

They were all wrong with the thought that Soderling game is more suited on Grass, totally disregarded his two finals at Roland Garros beating Roger and particularly Rafa. His game is more suited on Clay as the ball bounces higher which give him better access to the ball for a smash.

As Nadal underlined it, movement on grass is very important, does Soderling a good mover to cover the grass court?

Regarding GS, I observed that most of his previous losses were normally attributed either injury or tiredness therefore a healthy & fit Rafa is untouchable at Grandslams.

Vamos Rafa !

Ricky, so you think Rafa has done 'NOTHING' outside of clay tournaments eh? Interesting perspective. And more than a little baffling. I thought you followed tennis more closely than you apparently do. I hope you're also not one of those that feels the 'Slams' are the only important tournaments in tennis, since afterall consistently making semis in competitions, particularly when your rivals have struggled to get that far themselves, in your eyes equates to 'NOTHING'.

Feeling a little bit lacklustre about Wimby this year, for no particular reason. I do think (a) there will be a Federer shocker this year (nope, don't feel he's making the finals, just a gut feeling) (b) Rafa probably won't win but I feel he'll go a lot further than some here think he will (c) this will hopefully be Roddick's year. He came very very close last year and I would love for him to finally put this one to rest and come away the victor.

I'd be thrilled with a Rafa win of course but won't lose any sleep if he's not champion this year. He's got no points to defend and each round will only be a bonus for him. That's a pretty sweet deal, especially if he makes it all the way to the finals.

Raindrops- Thank You...:)

tj- Tsonga is not better than Verdasco on grass. Verdasco has more experience on the surface. It didn't matter who Tsonga lost to last year, the fact is he lost. Tsonga has to get past Dolgopolov n maybe Almagro first.

So many here still on Sod vs Rafa. I'm not as pessimistic as some here. Yes the Sod is a different player from three years ago, but Rafa is also not the same Rafa of 2007. He is now a Wimbledon champion and he understands how to win it. He is fit, healthy, confident and most importantly playing with more aggression. And, knowing Rafa, he will not allow a player like Sod to beat him again, esp in a slam, just like he won't allow Tsonga to beat again when they meet. For those that have inflicted painful losses on Rafa, Rafa will try his very best not to lose to them if he meets them again. I see that Rafa would count Sod as one of them.

For me the likely person to upset Fed is Berdych. If Fed reaches the semifinal , he is very hard to beat. Likewise when he reaches the final. He had lost to two men in the semis and two men in the finals of slams - Safin n Nole in Sf, and Rafa n Delpo in finals. If Fed meets Hewitt or Roddick or Nole in the SF, he'll most likely beat them. If Fed is in the final and does not see Rafa there, Fed will win the title. Unless you are Rafa, to beat Fed in a slam, you have to beat him in the earlier rounds. I see a top form Tipsy playing above his normal level giving Fed all sorts of problems in the earlier round, if they meet.

Ps I've forgotten that Rafa did beat Fed in the semifinal of a slam, the 2005 French Open. Rafa wasn't no. 2 then.

luckystar: how could you forget that RG semi. That was the moment when so many people realised a star had been born.

You see ed, I only remember that Rafa won the French Open in 2005, but I may forget who he had beaten en route to his first slam.

McEnroe has just picked Nadal to win on Sky, great to see that not everyone thinks like Ricky.


VAMOS!

@luckystar
not really. first of all,the better man doesnt always win the tennis match. And second fo all,i think tsongas game is far more suited to grass than verdascos is,as his net game is amongst the games best. (and other reasons as well) On top of that,verdasco may still have fitness issues, as his loss to brown in boodles showed. However,i do think that the winner of tsonga vs verdasco(if it eventuates) will have a good chance at the semis,as Murray always loses to big hitters at the slams. (even when he is in peak form) Oh,and Almagro cant even beat tsonga on clay-he has no chance on grass unless tsonga's injured.

here is an interesting article. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/tennis-news/2010/06/21/rival-roger- federer-defends-andy-murray-after-shock-eve-of-wimbledon-attack-on-sco t-by-john-lloyd-86908-22348123/

Oh and Sampras tips Federer to win wimbledon. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/rogerfederer/7840429/Wimbledon -2010-Pete-Sampras-tips-Roger-Federer-to-win-10-Wimbledon-titles.html

Roger Federer says he's Mr Invincible: Champion lays down a challenge as he sets out on his quest for Wimbledon title No 7

By Malcolm Folley
Last updated at 10:58 PM on 19th June 2010


When Roger Federer walks on to Centre Court tomorrow he will be consumed by one desire ? to be crowned Wimbledon champion for a record-equalling seventh time.

Neither replacing Pete Sampras as the most successful player in Grand Slam history nor fatherhood have diminished Federer?s drive to create a legacy that may be impossible to eclipse.

?What keeps me motivated is the thought of being able to relive the moment of lifting the Wimbledon trophy again,? said Federer yesterday. ?I know I can beat anybody on any given day and DOMINATE ANY TOURNAMENT. I?d love to leave behind records that could stay unbroken for as long as possible.?

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/tennis/article-1287992/WIMBLEDON-2010 -Roger-Federer-says-hes-Mr-Invincible.html#ixzz0rTPQi8kZ


Dominate any tournament????? Now there's a rash claim from the man who has won only 2 titles in 10 months, and he is not even injured.

Correction:

Federer has won 1, yes one title in 10 months, and he thinks he can dominate any tournament.

nadline: What a preposterous interview. The man's delusional.

predicting murray to reach the final, wow... he has done nothing this season after OzO to merit such a pick, absolutely nothing, he's had a terrible slump. that quarter is wide open...

ricky is just doing his rickydimon jinx on the sod so that if rafa meets sod, rafa will flatten him like a pancake :-)

tj - It had been said many times that Tsonga's game is more suited for grass but he had failed last year by losing to a big server. Verdasco may not be 'fresh' but Tsonga has just come off an injury, so both of them not in tip top condition. It all come down to how they go about beating their respective opponents before meeting each other in the fourth round. Almagro may not beat Tsonga, but he may stretch Tsonga to a fourth or even fifth set. Tsonga may have difficulty too in the early round against Dolgopolov. I've seen this Dolgo boy played at Eastbourne. He reached the SF and lost to Llodra. Llodra mentioned that this Dolgo guy is difficult to play against, as he really can mix things up and it is difficult to read his moves. I remember him giving Rafa problems too at the Madrid second round match, even on clay. Though Rafa won in straight sets, but it was not without a fight, and Rafa did say the same thing about Dolgo (something similar to what Llodra said about Dolgo). I'm eagerly awaiting that match but it may not be televised here (most probably match will not be at the center court).

ed & nadline - I've not read about that interview but could it be the media sensationalize everything again? Fed's words may have been 'twisted' once again by the media. I'll give him the benefit of doubts. Anyway whatever he wants to say, that's his own opinions and I won't read too much into it. I'm only interested in his objective assessment on a player's performance, potential etc.

"...Roland Garros was so boring and very very predictable." - tennisball , 6/20/10 3:56 PM

Really? Did you predict that Federer will be trashed in the 4th round?

"...Roland Garros was so boring and very very predictable." - tennisball , 6/20/10 3:56 PM

Really? Did you predict that Federer will be trashed in the 4th round?

phoenix , 6/21/10 12:09 PM



Well said. Lol.

Nole part of draw is very difficult.. but... in few last tournaments he had relatively easy draw... and he did not reach deep in T... so this time there are real challenges in front of him... press is not on his shoulders... he is relax...
We'll see today what is his serve like...
And about ExFed... those days he is speaking and speaking... Do you know why Swiss won over Spain in South Africa. Because Roge called them to give them inspiration... wooooow... I can hardly wait for one more interview with hat, eyes dawn, hidden behind his delusion and arrogance... He will go dawn very soon in Wimby... his serve is cracking, his forehand had lost his precision... from dominator he became prey for every player staring with first match. Nobody will choke anymore like Acasusso or Haas...

Federer is already looking forward to the final in the BBC Wimbledon Review.

By the way, the above is not a mosquote, I saw him say it.

No doubt Federer has an easy draw and that's the only way he'll go deep, if he had anything more challenging, he'll struggle. Today's match is a no contest, he'll walk it.

@luckystar
about tsonga's injury: He played and won two grass court exhibitions-convincingly. (against Davy and Kohl)and he was moving quite well around the court, and he was playing well so I am going to ASSUME that he is getting back to top form. You also need to take into account that tsonga has had a plethora of injuries throughout his career,so he probably gains his from a bit quicker than most players would as he is used to recovering from injuries. The same cannot be said about Verdasco. He came back and lost to Dustin Brown. I also maintain that Tsongas game is far more suited to grass than Verdasco's. Tsonga's volley is better than Verdasco,his serve is bigger and more consistent,and he is also quicker around the court. (thats not to say tsonga would win ofc)

Federer says:

Ranking is always a big priority for me, and I want to finish the year at No 1,? he said. ?I can make my first move at Wimbledon to get it back from Rafa.?

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/tennis/article-1287992/WIMBLEDON-2010 -Roger-Federer-says-hes-Mr-Invincible.html#ixzz0rTzYZYSO

@imjimmy , 6/20/10 11:36 PM
If Sod was such a big deal on grass, how come he's only made the last 16 once, and has lost 7 out of 15 matches played at Wimbledon? Rafa is a past champion, has made the final three times in a row, and has beaten Federer in the final.

It appears that some people start off with the conclusion that Rafa is weak on any surface to all comers, and then proceed to justify it by evading the facts.


VAMOS!

I think Ricky was grinning from ear to ear while typing that Soderling over Rafa prediction. :-)

Nishikori over Nadal in 3

Federer will bulldoze his way and win all his matches in 3 sets. That's how easy his draw looks like!

Fed lost first set 5-7

And now is a break down in the second. !!

"Federer will bulldoze his way and win all his matches in 3 sets. That's how easy his draw looks like!" - phoenix , 6/21/10 2:33 PM

Aw shucks! It's now on the 3rd set and Federer still has to win a set.

"Nishikori over Nadal in 3" - sabs , 6/21/10 2:25 PM

You're still in the mood to talk about Rafa?

sabs...lol

related to atr????

Some people based their predictions on their own fancies. I doubt Nishi can beat Rafa in three.

Easy draw or not, Fed is already having problem in his first round match. It takes one good player to capitalize on Fed's horrible play.

nadline@12:57 PM: Don't make the mistake of drawing a conclusion from Soderling's overall record at Wimbledon. Soderling became the genuine threat he is only after F.O 2009. Since then he's backed up his performances, and has only been beaten by Fed/Nadal in slams (outside of AO 2010).

Robin is BY FAR the WORST QF match up for ANY of the top 4 players. Monster serve and monster ground game, tailor made for grass. Hell his serve alone can make him win. Soderling's game relies on big serving and not being broken. If he is on, it would come down to tiebreaks and that's a scary proposition. Furthermore, because his serve is so flat, it becomes even more effective on grass and his shots penetrate through much more. He'll serve big and respond to weak returns with some heavy hitting.

That match will be a TRUE test of Nadal's concentration/mental fortitude; if Rafa has a lapse on his own service games, the set is done. Nadal will have to stand up closer to the baseline and somehow put enough second serve deep in play and chip/block few first serves. If he persists with standing back and using the extreme western grip while returning from the forehand, it will hurt him as Soderling will clobber all the short returns. On clay, Soderling could NOT hit through Nadal as Rafa chased down everything because of his superior movement. On grass it's impossible to slide and recover.

Did you see the Soderling vs Federer match at Wimb 2009? It was a tough, tough match for Fed that came down to a handful of clutch points and there was at least one tiebreak if not two. Soderling was esentially unlucky not to have won a set (or more). The match was reduced to a serve fest, and obviously, that is not something Nadal can do. But yeah, Fed was definitely lucky in that match, as he admitted himself.

Again I'm not saying Soderling will definitely beat Nadal. But he has the kind of game which is a nightmare for Rafa on grass. Even in 2007 when he was half the player he is now, he still took Nadal to 5 sets. The problem with Soderling is that he's such a STREAKY player. If he's on fire, he can beat a well playing Rafa -- hell, he can beat anyone on this surface. The RG final doesn't mean anything here; the claycourter schooled the ballbasher. It's a much different situation on grass.

I think the soderling vs Nadal match will be a true test for Rafa, and will tell us where he is at gamewise. Soderling is by far the BIGGEST threat for Nadal in the tournament. If Rafa beats the Swede convincingly, he will WIN wimbledon.

imjimmy, I hear what you say. It's a shame many have no faith in Rafa.

Rafa didn't even get broken by Sod at RG, and don't give me the it was clay, because a clay-courter nearly did for Federer today.

AFTER ALEJANDRO FALLA'S perfomance today against FEDERER (and vice versa)... ALL BETS on a FEDAL finals are OFF........ Federer threatened by Falla???... not in our WILDEST imaginations!

Thats the thing that really gets me....................after what we saw today with Fed peple are still dare to predict what they think will be!! Its just a waste of time.......there are a tonne of hungry guys out there and if the top four dont put their armour on they ALL will be gone by round 16!!!

Monalysa,

Thank you for some good common sense! I am getting increasingly nervous with all this ongoing debate about Rafa and Sod in the quarterfinals! Both Rafa and Sod have to get through the first four rounds before they can have this supposedly epic confrontation.

People can analyze the respective strengths and weakness of Rafa and Sod on grass, until the cows come home, but it won't be worth anything if either of them don't get there. Also, as I have said and will continue to say, matches at slam tournaments are not necessarily won by the one who plays the best tennis or has the superior game. Matches are won on grit, toughness, guts and will to win. That's where Rafa will have the edge every single time. Rafa is an excellent grass court player, as his three consecutive Wimbledon finals prove. He is no slouch on grass and should not be discounted in favor of the likes of Murray, who has done absolutely nothing for months now and Fed, who has not been even close to his best.

I know predictions may not come to pass and certain anticipated matchups do not happen. But nevertheless, it's always fun to analyze. If the Soderling-Nadal match happens, it will be an absolute EPIC. It's likely to go right down to the wire (in 4 or 5 sets) with a few points deciding the outcome of the match. That's for sure.

If Nadal beats Soderling, that will mean he is playing his very best tennis, and so he will have an excellent chance of going all the way. I still think based on how he matches with Nadal, Soderling will be the toughest opponent Nadal faces in this tournament.

For the life of me I dont know what all this fuss is about Soderling...seriously...and in the process Rafa the player who is most on form, playing the best tennis, is totally being undermined, the same man that has the record number of Masters and 7 Grand Slams, that just won 4 tournaments in a row!

The focus should be on Federers, Djokovic and Murrays wayward form. They have all been performing badly for their standards, but irrespective of this Federer who has not won a tournament since the Australian open is still picked to win Wimbledon and no one is questioning his match ups or form, until today, I guess and his oh so close dismissal in the first round.

It absolutely baffles my mind, why it's Rafa who is always targeted to lose early or to do poorly!

Even before the Falla match, I wrote in another blog about predictions, that fans who bet, should bet wisely. They should throw their love affair away that they have with their favourite players and bet smart and bet on form and instinct.

What do you think I was implying?

I didnt want to make a finals prediction straight out as I didnt want to be attacked and I am not going to. I will just make the match by match as soon as we get to the round of 16

isabeau,

I am dying to hear your match by match predictions! I sense that you already feel you know who will be in the finals and will win. I cannot see that far ahead. I like to actually watch some of the top players in action in the early rounds. It helps me to get a sense as to where their game is at, their form, if they seem to be confident, mentally tough.

I am quite baffled about the predictions for Murray to go to the semis or better. I have no idea where this is coming from, or on what it is based. Rafa has the superior record on grass. Murray's best surface is hard court, but he wasn't able to find his form after his AO final loss to Fed. It would appear that some seem to think that he will be inspired by being at his country's slam event. That may well happen, or he may find his form on the grass. I just cannot remember when a player was in such poor form coming into a slam event, yet was being picked by any number of online tennis bloggers to get to at least the semis, if not win. Murray was the defending champion at Queens, yet he was ousted early. Rafa had an excuse at Queens after the grueling tennis he played to win all three clay court Masters titles and the biggest prize of all, RG. Just looking at Rafa, one could see the fatigue. He needed a rest. If some are taking his quarterfinal result as a sign of how he will do at Wimbledon, then they are going to be proven wrong.

I don't know why Rafa is getting short shrift for Wimbledon, but I have decided that it's a good thing that he isn't once again the overwhelming favorite. He had that pressure to deal with at RG. I really think Rafa likes being a bit under the radar. He surprised everyone at the 2009 AO when he won. All I heard during the tournament was Fed and Murray.

I can see Fed being considered the favorite, given his record at Wimbledon. You said there would be some real surprises along the way and we almost had the biggest one of all today in Fed's match with Falla. It just reinforces the fact that nothing should be taken for granted. No one has a ticket for the final.

I think this whole potential Rafa/Sod quarterfinal matchup has been blown way out of proportion. I do not think that IF Rafa and Sod meet and IF he does beat him, then it automatically means that he will win Wimbledon. I don't attach that much importance to one match.

It is a bit disappointing to see Rafa being taken so lightly at Wimbledon.

NNY- You are right, let them take Rafa lightly, he prefers it that way anyway...:)

As for Murray he will be lucky to get out of his section, forget about making it into the final.

The player though that I believe is being totally underestimated is Andy Roddick.
It's strange really, because Andy Roddick is rarely ever on my radar, yet I cant get him out of my mind.
It could be Roddicks year, if not he will go deep.

isabeau,

It's so strange that you say what I am thinking so many times. I agree about Roddick. I have been careful with any predictions about him yet, because he has not been in good form leading up to Wimbledon. He was in great form until he took some time off during the clay court season. However, I have had this feeling that he just may make a run here. I didn't see much of his match and it's too early to judge based on a first round match, but I will keep an eye on him.

I just had to jump back on here to let you know that it seems as though you are reading my mind. Thanks to you, I will always go with my gut instinct when I make my predictions. It's just that sometimes I am very sure about my pick and other times, it's really just a guess.

I cannot wait for Rafa to get out on center court!

Vamos, Rafa for the win!

Ricky: terrific of you to make those predictions! brilliant.
I'm inclined to agree with Isabeau77, looking at form, Andy is not going to make it to the finals, nor is Novak. As for Fed., well it's different for him isn't it? However, if the prediction is Fed destroys Andy in the final, then I certainly don't want Andy to be there! Looking at form only, surely Rafa is the hot favourite?

Sod may not get past Baghdatis or whoever. Its not a sure thing that he'll do well on grass. After yesterday's first round match, I think only Berdych impress me with his straight sets win. Roddick also won in straight but Ram is not exactly a player who made things difficult for his opponent. I just imagine a Roddick/Falla first round and may be Roddick will have to go the distance too like Fed to beat Falla.

I'm impress by Davy though, he faced an ace machine, who served 30+ aces throughout the five sets that they played and Davy came through winning the last set 9-7 or 10-8. Grass is Davy's worst surface and I'm glad he survived the first round. Really miss Davy and its so good to see him back on the tours. I hope his wrist is OK now and he can do better here at Wimby than his last year. Sad that Cilic can't get past the first round, something is not right with him, I hope his coach can do something to help him.

Rafa vs Nishikori, I hope Rafa doesn't make things difficult for himself. Rafa should be happy that the Spanish football team won their match yesterday.

NNY- Trust me I have the same problem with predictions in the sense that I am so very sure sometimes and other times I am not and there are several reasons for this

1) My heart interfers with what my instincts are telling me and like all things in life you dont want to believe bad news, when it has to do with players you like. I mean I am a Rafa fan, but I love many players on the circuit.

2) It is very hard to listen to your instinct when it is yelling something at you that seems very unlikely to occur.

3) My beliefs are that, our lives are charted in detail, because how else can psychic so accurately predict the future (its not a wild guess),if its not written to some degree and because I can do it, I believe it. (Though everyone is entitled to believe whatever they want to...:)

So although the end result doesnt change, the path to that result can, like a flow chart. So for example with Federer at Roland Garros, he was not destined to get to the semis, I knew this, when he was going to lose, I wasnt 100 sure, because it was dependant on for example Wawrinka, whether he would chose (subconsciously) to beat Federer and lose to Soderling or whether he wanted to lose to Federer, whom then would lose to SOderling, because thats what they wrote in their charts.
The end result being the same. Though this is another reason, why its hard to get a strong sense of something sometimes, because the decision, in the grand scheme of things has not been made.
I know this may seem far fetched but for me thats how the universe rolls.
Its complex but I hope you understand what I am trying to say.

I mean there is an element of free will but the major things in life I believe are fixed. For instance I dreamed that Princess Diana died in a car crash days before her death and I felt guilty for not being brave enough to warn someone as I feared people would laugh and think I am a crazy person.
But the thing is I am not English, I am Australian and coudn't care less about the Queen and her family and had never dreamed about her before. There is no way I would have been able to guess this or dream by fluke!)

Deuce and Luckystar-
I wouldnt worry about Murray, seriously.

It wouldnt surprise me one bit, if its a Roddick v's Berdych SemiFinal, with Roddick prevailing. I think if Federer gets to the quarters and meets Berdych he is in trouble. I just cant for the life of me see Federer or anyone else, from that half in the final other than Roddick at this point. Dont ask me why.

I know its a long long way to go, but I cant shake Roddick.
I hope I am wrong as it would be good to see Fed there is Rafa makes too.

It's funny how people keep saying Soderling is a better player than he was in '07 and how much more of a threat he is to Rafa now. Well, do people not think Rafa has improved as well? It's not as if he hasn't worked on his game and has remained static for his peers to catch up. Just as many people thought Soderling would be the stuff of nightmares for Rafa at the French - and I think we can all agree Rafa handled him with ease - I think lots of people will be taken aback if they do meet later in this tournament. People should have learned by now about underestimating Rafa and overhyping his opponents.

Zooni- Spot on.
Soderling is as dangerous in my book as Berdych, Almagro, Davydenko (when fit), Verdasco (when not exhausted), Djokovic (when in form) and Roddick and I am sure a whole heap of other players.

Soderling is not outstanding, he was just lucky enough to take two major scalps in an injured Rafa and a below par Federer.
If they were on top of their games and fully fit, he would have not touched them.

All Soderling has is a massive serve and massive forehands, of his serve goes and forehand misfires, he loses!

isabeau77: would be happy if Roddick won, would be a fitting end to his career. All his tennis life he has lived under Fed's shadow and last year played his heart out.
Agree with you totally about Soderling.

Deuce: You know what, if Rafa cant win it, I want Roddick too and I will shed happy tears for him, for the same reasons you listed.
It would be glorious to see and definitely one of the great Wimbledon moments, just because of how emotional it will be for Roddick, where all the years he has worked oh so hard and lived in the shadow of Federer, will finally culminate in his greatest moment and if it is Rafa that he were to beat, although I am a Rafa fan through and through, I would stand up and cheer for Roddick and its one final I would be ok with Rafa losing.

I hope both Rafa and Soderling play well heading to Quarterfinals so that Rafa can show how good he is on grass.

For Roddick to have a chance to the final, he must make sure he finishes his matches as soon as possible. I feel that in last year's final, he played better than Fed for most part of the match till the fifth set when they had to go the distance. Fed begun to serve as well as he could to hold serve. Roddick faltered at the end, and I feel that physical fatigue had affected his concentration, he paid the price of having long matches in the earlier rounds (2 five sets and 1 four sets matches).

Roddick should have won that second set tie-break. When he was serving at 6-5 in that tie-break, if he served an ace, he would have gotten to a two sets lead. Fed also admitted that had Roddick won that second set, it would be difficult for Fed to come back and win the match as Roddick was serving unbelievably well. We see that most players at crunch time, can't serve an ace to bail themselves out of trouble. That IW match between Rafa and Nalby came to mind. Rafa was facing a match point during Nalby's serve. Had Nalby served an ace then, Rafa would have to pack and go home. Yet, Nalby, as experienced a player as he was, couldn't serve one ace and he paid the price for allowing Rafa back to the match. So far, only Fed and Rafa are able to do that on a consistent basis; that's why they are the top two guys for so long.

Nadal looked great today. His forehand and serve were both on song. Likewise for Soderling, who gave a serving clinic, loosing just 1 point on his first serve in 2 sets! Unbelievable!

I think we are heading towards a Soderling-Nadal Epic QF.

Too soon to tell whether it will be a Rafa-Sod QF, there are many more matches to be played. Sod can't serve like that every match, and it takes more than the serves to win matches. If not, we may be seeing Isner winning slams soon. Didn't Sod served great in many of his matches and yet he still lost them to Fed, to Delpo, to Rafa, to Berdych...to name a few, and Sod has yet to win a slam? No worry, imjimmy, stay positive. If we really get a Rafa/Sod match, Rafa will find a way to win, trust him.

luckystar: Soderling is much more than a serve. He absolutely dismantled Ginepri today. He was on fire, and it was scary most of the times, on how big his forehand was. I've rarely seen anyone hit the ball that hard. I don't think anyone from his quarter has a prayer to beat Soderling. Plus Nadal also is looking really good. Rafa played better, today, than I expected him to. So both Sod-Nadal will go to the QF, that's for sure.

I think it will be a tough tough match, and will come down to a few points and some luck. I think if Nadal wins that match, Murray/Federer/Roddick won't stop him from winning Wimbledon. And If Soderling wins, he has a great shot to go all the way, especially if Fed does not pick up his level.

Sod will not win Wimbledon! Sometimes your opponent makes you look good. Let's see his next round match, most likely against Granollers. I remember Granollers take Sod to four sets last year at Wimbledon and beats Sod at the AO this year (though Sod wasn't at his best form at the AO). With his big serves and big forehand, he still lost to Fed and Rafa, and I can't see him beating Rafa over five sets. The way Rafa is playing at the moment, I think no one can beat him in straight sets. Going the distance will favor Rafa more than Sod, just see how tired the Sod looked during his five sets match against Berdych at RG this year.

I am one of those who HATE making predictions.......................but I have this strange feeling that we will be booking a date with Rafa and Roddick in the finals!!!.............like i have written in previous posts.

So isabeau77, you and I are on the same page, kinda!!

luckystar: I don't think Granollers will do much against Soderling just because he's beaten Soderling before. Ginepri also beat Soderling at Chennai in Jan this year in straight sets! Didn't do him much good today. Soderling won like 42 or 46 points on serve (and lost only 1 pt in the first 2 sets). That's a unbelievable stat.

Let's also remember that Soderling is probably the ONLY player in the draw to have beaten BOTH Fed and Rafa at the slam level. That's big, because it means he's not unfamiliar with producing shocking upsets. While he may get tired in the closing stages of the tournament (like the final), he will still be fresh in the QF. I am hoping Nadal, himself, does not have very tough matches in his first four rounds so that he can be 100% against Soderling. As of now, both are looking good. It will be one hell of a match, and I am sure Nadal is wary of the danger..

imjimmy - I think you are one pessimistic person. Nobody says Granollers is going to beat Sod on grass (I know AO is not on grass and I did mention that Sod was not at his best at the AO). Granollers may stretch Sod to four or five sets, that's my point. There are still matches to be played, and who knows what Sod's opponents may do to him. Not everyone is like Ginepri, who gets blown away by Sod. Don't forget, when Sod beats Rafa both time at RG and WTF, Rafa was not at his best. I'm not underestimating Sod, but I'll not underestimate Rafa either. Rafa knows how to play on grass, and look at how he returns those big serves. He changes his strings for the purpose of handling those big servers and big hitters. Look at how deep he hits his shots nowadays, compared to end of 2009! Both Rafa and Murray are the best returners of serves. Rafa may have gone off a bit in that area but he is still one of the best (returner of serves) out there. Rafa can reach those low bouncing balls too and he is still fast around the court. He'll hit winners to areas of the court where Sod won't be able to reach. As I mentioned before(as in the RG tournament), when playing against big servers, the most important thing for Rafa to do is to hold his own serves. That way, even if he can't break his opponent's serves, at least he'll hold his own and wait for the tie breaks to decide who wins. Its still better than having your serves broken. Judging from today's match, Rafa is serving very well, and he is not even playing his best level yet (the commentators mentioned that too). We shall see what happens. I happen to be optimistic about Rafa's chances this year, having seen some of the top players played their first round match. And of course Rafa is well aware of what Sod is able to do, if not why for nothing he changes his strings, and why when he faces Sod at the RG final, he played one of his best matches on clay this year?

isabeau77 , 6/22/10 8:21 AM,

Thanks for sharing your feelings. I agree that sometimes the heart gets in the way. That is why I have to be careful when I predict Rafa's matches. Sometimes it's just that I want him to win so much. I like to believe that a player still has his fate in his own hands. I do feel that things happen for a reason, that there is a grand scheme. Look at when Rafa finally met Fed in the final at Madrid. I felt it was almost preordained. It happened when Rafa was healthy, with some titles under his belt, feeling confident and ready to do battle with his biggest rival. I actually posted my thoughts about fate or the tennis Gods telling Rafa - now it's your time, go forth and meet Fed. It was like everything came together at the right time.

I finally saw Rafa's first round match on the espn.360 replay. I always like to see for myself how Rafa looks. I must say that I am pleased with what I saw. Rafa can be a slow starter at slams, but he looked much sharper than he did in his first round match at RG. He seemed focused, confident, was moving incredibly well and had his groundstrokes clicking nicely. It was good to see that cross court backhand with the wicked angles. I love how comfortable Rafa is now with his volleying at net. I like how he is looking to move into the court, be aggressive and go for winners. He has to work on some things, but overall I love what I see! This is good news!

I heard about Sod and may watch the replay of his match. We will see if he can keep it up. The early rounds make me so nervous, because anything can happen. However, Rafa has his game face on and that is nice to see! I know what this means to him just to be back at Wimbledon playing again.

There were quite a few upsets. Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Verdasco departed and JC Ferrero are out.(not that im surprised) That leaves Murray's 1/4 even more wide open than it was at the beginning. I think the MOST LIKELY 1/4 final from that section is murray vs tsonga.

Hmm... so Rafa's win at RG has no bearing whatsoever on how well he will do at Wimby, but Soderling's performance at RG does?
Rafa went to Queens to practice, but Robin pulled out of Halle... he said he had played too many matches at RR and was tired.
So, obviously Rafa has done more on grass this year than Robin, and in the past the record difference between the two is obvious, so I still don't see the logic behind picking Robin over Rafa.

@imjmmy
As he has beaten Federer and Nadal b4,you can be assured that he is far less likely to "choke" at the latter stages of the match than most other players.(if he comes close to winning) Also,he served as if he was shooting the heads off arcade ducks on Tuesday -- and the hapless Ginepri was caught in the crossfire. Ginepri did not win a point on Soderling's first serve in the first set and just one in the second. it's an excellent statistic.

NNY- If SOderling is serving so well already, I doubt that form will continue in the later stages, only because extreme spot serving, like SOderling imparts, is very much dictated by how fresh a player is..so as the tournament progresses it will drop off, just like it did against Rafa in RG final.
Its hard to explain but when you are emotionally or a little physically tired, the serve is the first to go and unlike Rafa's serve there is no error of margin or 'safety' in the way Soderling serves.

grafight,

I understand your feelings about people picking Sod over Rafa. The way I deal with it is that I remind myself that it's just someone's opinion. It's not fact. I have confidence in Rafa, especially after seeing his first match today. He is a man on a mission. I have seen that look in his eyes before. He has some challenges even before any potential matchup with Sod, so I am letting that go for now. If it comes, then I am sure that Rafa will be ready. Don't let anyone's picks get you down! :)

tj600,

I agree with you that we will most likely see a Murray/Tsonga quarterfinal. The problem with Tsonga is that you never know which one will show up. His inconsistency is his biggest weakness. I do think he has the game to give Murray some real trouble, but that is assuming that he brings his "A" game.

isabeau,

I am with you in thinking that Sod will not be able to continue to serve in this manner. I also think Rafa has his own considerable weaponry to challenge Sod. I am just going to try to focus on Rafa's next match with Hasse. I don't know anything about this player, so I am not sure what to expect.

Just one match at a time, like Rafa! :)

isabeau - good point about Sod not likely to serve like he did throughout his matches. Sod won't be able to serve and hit like that for 7 matches and 21 sets, not making any errors or whatever. He is not a robot, as the tournament progresses, physically he'll get more tired and I doubt he can hit as hard as he would like to. And, please don't take Ginepri's level to be equal to those others like Bellucci, Ferrer or Rafa. Those three are much better players than Ginepri!

isabeau77: A proven (top 15) big server continues to serve well, unless he has a really off day or gets super tired. That could happen after a series of tough matches in the later stages of the tournament, not as soon as the 4th round or QF. And even then it is not likely.

The fact is that with the absence of Del Potro (and with Djokovic/Murray underperforming for the last yr or so), the MOST credible threat to Federer and Nadal is Soderling. Plus Sod's shown the guts to beat both Nadal and Federer at the slam level, which is more than can be said of almost all other players.

From now ON, it would make more sense to look at which quarter Soderling is in, rather than looking for Djokovic/Murray. In fact Soderling's been unfortunate to run into a red-hot Federer at both the USO and Wimb 2009, where he had chances to take the match. The Fed-Soderling Wimb. match just had a 5 point differential between the winner and loser. It was extremely close, and took some scintillating tennis from Fed (along with a decent slice of luck) for him to get through unscathed.

Against Ginepri yesterday, Soderling was playing like a man possessed. He was blasting serves upto 140mph and painting the lines on virtually every other shot from his forehand. He had 55+ Winners, many of which were hit in excess of 100 mph.

The nature of grass is such that ALL top players fear coming up against a red hot big server/big hitter who has the potential to make the match be played on his terms. While Nadal is playing well and getting close to his best, the one thing that is still lacking is his return of serve. And that could hurt him against Soderling. Rafa could have done even better against Nishikori yesterday, given that the Japanese is such a poor server. That said, he should be able to get good practice against Haase in Round-2.

imjimmy - The draw is what it is. If Sod didn't bump into Fed at the USD, he would also bump into Delpo. I seriously do not think that Sod can beat Delpo at the USO last year. Delpo was at his best then and he did beat Sod at the WTF semifinal. Fed or no Fed, Sod still would not win the USO. At Wmbledon last year, if Sod didn't bump into Fed and if he made it to the final, who can say for sure that he would beat Roddick? Roddick in that final was playing way better than Fed for most part of the match. How can we just assume that Sod will beat anyone including a top form Roddick?

Coming back to this Wimbledon, do you seriously think that Sod can play like a possessed man throughout the whole tournament?? I believe you did say the same thing about him during RG, and we see what happened there? He played like that for his QF match against Fed, and believe me Fed was the one who made the mistake of allowing Sod to take control of the second set and it cost Fed the match. Sod bumped into a Berdych who gave him all sorts of troubles and he practically crawled to the finishing line in that match, and we all know what happened in the final! Likewise for last year's RG, Sod beat a not so good Rafa, beat Davy easily, but he ran into Gonzo and had to go the distance and crawled to the finishing line, and again got beaten easily in the final. We see the same pattern going on about Sod.

The difference between this Wimbledon and the two RGs is: Sod may bump into a top form Rafa, instead of a not so good Fed or Rafa at RGs, at the QF stage. Sod won't have it easy definitely, considering the fact that he needs at least four sets to beat an off form Fed or Rafa. Anyway, before Sod and Rafa can meet in the QF, they have to beat their other opponents first. No point worry now, just concentrate on one match at a time. That QF that we predicted may not happen!

imjimmy- This below statement alone, written by you, strengthens my point, that Soderling can not keep this form up consistently because he has no margin for error and very little variation or plan B.

"Soderling was playing like a man possessed. He was blasting serves upto 140mph and painting the lines on virtually every other shot from his forehand. He had 55+ Winners, many of which were hit in excess of 100 mph."

Now Soderling is not a robot and the law of average and the fact that he is human tells you, that this can not be sustained.
If his serve is not firing and his forehand is not working, he has got nothing and if he comes up against an opponent like a FIT Rafa who will frustrate him and get everything back, Soderling crumbles (Replay RG final 2010 to see this in action).

Soderling can play lights out tennis, when he is allowed to by his opponent, just as he was allowed to play that way when he came up against an injured Rafa in RG 2009 and RG 2010 against Federer, whose didnt play at all well that day.
Rafas RG win was no accident, nor was any luck involved when he beat Soderling in the final this year at RG. Rafa had a precise plan which he executed to perfection. He wouldnt detail what that was to the media prior to the match, but we saw it with our own eyes.

By no means is Soderling an easy opponent, what I am saying is that if the Great Roger Federer is susceptible to playing bad matches when nothing is firing, when his serve is off, when his forehand and backhand have gone astray, so too is Soderling and neither Rafa nor Roger, hit with such low margin for error.
The difference is that true champions like Rafa and Roger, can win when they are playing bad, because they have plan B, C, D and E's.
Soderling is much less capable of doing so and I will go as far to say that this will be his downfall at WImbledon.

Good point there by isabeau77. Sod's game has a low margin for error. For Sod, his game is more hit or miss, do or die kind of play. We see during the RG final that Sod couldn't come up with a plan B, when he realized that he couldn't deal with Rafa. He just continue to try and outhit Rafa despite all his failures.

luckystar- exactly! And what is Nadal supreme at doing....Making a player move like a mad man on court. On grass in particular you need to move very well and soderling is a horrible mover, he requires that the ball is hit shoulder high (in his strike zone), and dropped short.
Federer and Nadal know to beat SOderling you must keep the ball low, hit deep, move him from side to side and return well on his serve.

isabeau,

Your posts are always so reassuring to me. I love your thought process, reasoning and logic. You remind me that Rafa has a way of overcoming even the more formidable opponents. I don't think that Rafa's intelligence about the game is truly fully appreciated. He is quite the thinker out there! I also think he is superb at making adjustments in the middle of a mathc.

The good news for us is that Rafa is moving incredibly well on court. That bodes well for his chances here.

Thanks so much for all your knowledge and perspective.

NNY-
Thank you, NNY, your posts to reassure me that I am not nuts because sometimes people on these forums can make you feel that way.

I guess I just state what is so obvious through analysis. I have played a far few sports in competition including tennis so I guess thats why I may make sense.

As for Rafa, I agree that Rafas intelligence on court is over looked. Commentators hype on about Murrays on court intelligence but I think Rafas outweighs his. In any case Rafa seems as hungry to win this tournament as he was in RG. I actually havent seen him so determined. The intensity in his eyes is scary, he is in annihilation mode.
Rafa version 1.0 was very very good. Rafa version 2.0 is formidable.

isabeau,

I totally understand what you are saying about people on forums making you feel nuts! I have had feelings often! I just get a sense about people here, like I do about the players. You and I seem to think alike and have the same way of thinking.

I will always be grateful that you gave me the confidence to always go with my instinct when I make predictions! That meant a lot to me, because I don't always have the ability to trust what I am feeling.

I like the idea of the new and even more intense version of Rafa! I also saw that look in his eyes. Those are the things I look for when he is in a slam tournament, as well as the elements of his game. So much of Rafa's greatness is in his mind and also his heart.

NNY,
I hope you also have confidence to use your instincts in life too...its like having another sense...:)

It is very apparent to me, as it is to you, when Rafa is not well, either emotionally or physically. I just have to look at him to know, he is very very transparent.

In any case I hope he plays well against Haase today. I am not sure if he has played him before so it will be interesting to see how he goes today.

Aren't there unusually many 5 setters?

I've posed the same question on another thread. I'm sure 21 in the first two rounds must be close to being a record.

Clayking is the person to answer that for us.

Perhaps we should ask John Isner or Nicolas Mahut how long a big server can keep it up?

smr-
Yes a big server can keep it up if his serves are unchallenged and very little running/rallys are involved, to cause fatigue. Especially when both players are massive server and all they are doing is standing on the spot playing target practice, with the exception of some short rallys in between which come off the odd second serve.
But the story is totally different if Nadal, Federer, Murray or any of the other great returner of serves, were at the other end. Their balls in time would be return with interest, they would be made to work and slowly but sorely the massive servers game would slowly drop off, leading to their loss. The same way Rafa beat Soderling, Hasse (Today) and Isner many times in the past. The only way big serves can win against great returners of serve is that they have to pray to God, that their opponents game is off, serve misfiring and that they are producing a lot of unforced errors of their own.

Did you know that players hit over 100 serves in training because their serve is not considered warmed up until they do. Its called SPOT SERVING.

isabeau77: it's so interesting watching these great returners start to read their opponent's big serve and as soon as they do that then, of course, the big server starts to get nervous and off we go. As you say for someone like Soderling that's his main weapon. I was watching the Isner-Mahut match and, when Isner was tiring he failed to make any first serve in one game. Mahut, unfortunately, couldn't capitalise on this and still failed to get one point! I remember Murray destroyed Isner, was it at the AO? Enough said.
I also remember at Wimbledon 2008 Rafa started to read Fed's serve and make inroads and we all know what happened then!

deuce:
Also what people dont realise is how much concentration is required to return massive servers serves. Everything has to be clicking, your eye, your reflexes, your instincts are your timing.

Well - I hope the Nadal-Haase match made clear the difference between clay and grass. Nadal is a monster on clay, and hel would have straight setted Haase on that surface. The dutchman wouldn't have come CLOSE to even winning a set. On grass, big servers can trouble Nadal (and anyone else for that matter). One poor service game is all it takes to lose the set, which is what happened to Rafa in the first set (and one amazing return game from Haase in the 3rd). Grass weakens Nadal's biggest weapon i.e his ability to defend. On clay it's impossible to hit through Nadal, on grass not so much since the ball penetrates through the court much faster and Rafa cannot slide and recover.

Of course, Rafa isn't too comfortable against big servers, and he usually has a hard time reading their serves. That said, I was happy that against Haase from the fourth set onwards, Nadal returned very well and made some very nice adjustments (which coincided with Haase having a drop in serving).

As Nadal goes into the 2nd week, he should (and probably will) improve his first serve percentage and its placement. The return of serve also needs to get sharper. He faces big threats in Petzschner, De Bakker (who's a big server), and - the biggest of them all - Soderling (the hottest player in the tournament).

The road is long and hard, however, history says Nadal get's better on grass as the tournament goes on and we saw that back in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Let's hope this year is the same, because Rafa REALLY does need to step it up to have any chance of beating the likes of Soderling/Murray etc. Even De-Bakker looks like a threat, if he continues serving the way he is.

De Bakker will run out of steam when he meets Rafa, after having a long five sets match himself. He has to get past Matthieu first and there is no guarantee it won't be another long day for him. De Bakker is still inexperienced and may falter at some point. He was fortunate to meet a 'half-dead' Isner and won easily.

From the fourth round onwards, everyone of them has to step it up, not only Rafa. Only Sod and Murray are not tested so far; we see Berdych being tested today and go the distance to beat Istomin. I think Murray may be tested by Simon, if Simon is fit. Simon may take a set off Murray, and most likely Querry may make Murray go the distance if they meet. Sod may be tested by Bellucci or Ferrer (I think Ferrer can get past Chardy) and I really hope Bellucci/Ferrer can put up a fight.

luckystar: I agree. Regarding Murray: I'm not as impressed by him as I am with Soderling. I have a feeling he really hasn't been tested yet. The match against Simon is likely to be an easy one for Murray again. However the 4th round against Querry could be a great match

Sam Querrey has had a very good tournament. He's not steamrolling over guys, but is playing very solid grass tennis, and winning in spite of good opposition so far. He has Malisse in the next round, and then a potential matchup with Murray. that I think he has a chance to win - Murray looks great and is the better player, but Sam has been playing with confidence, and his serve gives him a great chance in most matches. I really hope that Malisse does NOT act as a spoiler and upsets Querry coz he won't have any chance against Murray.

For Soderling, the way the Swede is playing, I don't expect Bellucci/Chardy/Ferrer to take a set off him, much less the match. Soderling is far and away the MOST impressive player in this tournament. I don't think anyone other than a Fed (or a full flight Nadal) can stop him.

luckystar: Simon is a less good Andy and severely lacks match practise so, unless Andy goes walkabout, always possible, it should be straightforward for him. I agree real test is Querry who must be pretty confident at the mo.
Don't discount de Bakker yet, he is junior Wimbledon champ. Agree with you on other thread, I've never particulary liked Meltzer but by golly I thought his attitude/play were spot on against Lopez and wasn't he so disappointing? Meltzer has obviously got a lot of zing after RG. Time Istomin sacked his mama, I feel. He's got so much potential. He's 23, has he had time out with injury? I haven't heard as much about him as I should.

All our the top seeds played extremely well in R3 IMO!

Wimbledon picks: Federer over Murray

********************

One half of this duo is already out!

And only one of the semifinal picks actually made it:
"Federer over Roddick in 4
Murray over Soderling in 5"

shows how unpredictable tennis can be!