Ricky Dimon

  • Approach shots: Nadal welcomes Federer to his playground

    2009-04-13 09:15:55
    "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

    If clay is Rafael Nadal's personal playground, then Roger Federer grabbed a hold of the monkey bars at the very last second.

    Federer, who married long-time girlfriend Mirka Vavrinec on Saturday, was originally planning to skip this week's Masters Series Monte-Carlo. The 2008 Monte-Carlo runner-up, however, decided to take a wildcard into the 1000-point tournament and he will now be present for the first clay-court Masters event of the season along with the other members of the Top 5 (Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Juan Martin Del Potro).

    The Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters does not boast the same size nor the same quality of the recent hard-court Masters Series events in Indian Wells and Miami, but it should still be wildly entertaining. Furthermore, no disrespect to last week's tournaments in Casablanca and Houston (where former world No. 1 players Juan Carlos Ferrero and Lleyton Hewitt triumphed, respectively), but the sprint to Roland Garros really begins in earnest with the arrival of the Masters Series Monte-Carlo.

    Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters

    Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
    Surface: Clay
    Prize Money: 2,750,000 Euros
    Points: 1000
    Top Seed: Rafael Nadal
    Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal

    Draw Analysis: Honestly, does it really matter what the draw looks like? You could put every one of the top 14 seeds in Nadal's own quarter of the draw (there are 14 players in each quarter for a field of 56), and he would in all likelihood still cruise to the title. That's just how dominant the four-time French Open champion has been on clay in recent years.

    Well, of course there are not 13 other seeds in Nadal's quarter, but the Spaniard still has a tough draw. He will probably face either Radek Stepanek or Lleyton Hewitt in the third round. Stepanek already has two ATP titles this season (and he beat Federer on clay last spring), and Hewitt is coming off a title in Houston last week. Nadal could then meet Juan Martin Del Potro in the fourth round. Del Potro is up to No. 5 in the world and he just shocked Nadal in the quarterfinals of the Sony Ericsson Open. Clay should be a much different story, but Del Potro is a tough customer on any surface at any time, especially when the Argentine is armed with this kind of confidence.

    None of the "Big 4," however, got a more difficult quarter of the draw than Djokovic. The No. 3 player in the world is in a section that includes Fernando Verdasco, David Ferrer, and Nicolas Almagro. While Almagro is the only one of those three Spaniards who is specifically a clay-court specialist, all three are extremely dangerous on the slow stuff. Click here for a preview of Djokovic's quarter.

    Federer and Murray have easier roads to the semifinals. Federer's nearest seed is fellow Swiss and gold medal-winning doubles partner Stanislas Wawrinka, who reached the fourth round of the Sony Ericsson Open. Wawrinka, however, seems to have a serious mental block when it comes to playing Federer. Things could get tricky for Federer in the quarters, where he will probably meet either Tommy Robredo or Gilles Simon. Murray's nearest seed is Marin Cilic, who is no slouch on clay but much prefers faster surfaces. The Scot's potential seeded quarterfinal opponents are David Nalbandian and Nikolay Davydenko. Nalbandian is slumping and Davydenko has been sidelined almost the entire season with an injury. The end result should be a rare semifinal appearance in a clay-court event for Murray.

    If every member of the "Big 4" advances to the semifinals, Nadal will meet Murray and Federer will battle Djokovic in a rematch of a Sony Ericsson Open semifinal clash, which Djokovic took in three sets.

    First-Round Upset Alert: There are plenty, but the three most likely:

    1) Lleyton Hewitt over Marat Safin. This would only be an upset according to the rankings. Hewitt is rounding into form after a flurry of injuries and he is coming off a title in Houston. In his last season on tour, Safin is yet to astound and clay is probably not the surface on which he is going to recapture any magic.

    2) Paul-Henri Mathieu over Nalbandian. Mathieu enjoyed a decent showing at the Sony Ericsson Open and Nalbandian has been in dreadful form ever since winning the Sydney title back in January.

    3) Florent Serra over Ivo Karlovic. Serra finished runner-up to Ferrero last week at the Grand Prix Hassan II and Karlovic has been in dismal form throughout 2009. It would actually be a surprise if Serra lost this one.

    Potential Surprises: 1) Nikolay Davydenko - For the record, I think Davydenko will lose his opener to Serra (assuming Serra first gets past Karlovic). If Davydenko can somehow win that one and get settled into the tournament, however, he could actually do some damage. Nobody in that quarter of the draw (Murray's quarter) is unbeatable.

    2) Florent Serra - The Frenchman had two quarterfinal finishes on the hard courts and will be playing with confidence after reaching the Casablanca title match last week. Karlovic has not been playing well, Davydenko has not been playing at all, and potential third-round opponent Nalbandian is slumping.

    3) Tommy Robredo - He flies under the radar even when he is winning tournaments left and right, so despite his clay-court prowess, almost everyone would consider it a surprise if Robredo reaches the Monte-Carlo semifinals. He should cruise into the third round, at which point both Simon and Federer (the top two seeds in Robredo's quarter) are beatable. To clarify: on clay, they are beatable for Robredo. On any other surface, not so much.

    4) Nicolas Almagro - He can catch fire on clay at any moment. The Spaniard has a tough opener against countryman Albert Montanes, but if he survives that, he could go all the way to the semis. Almagro definitely has the clay-court goods to upset Djokovic in round three and could do the same to either Verdasco or Ferrer in the quarters. Granted a first-round loss to Montanes is probably more likely than a semifinal appearance, but don't be shocked if it happens.

    Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Fernando Verdasco, David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo, Marin Cilic, Radek Stepanek, Lleyton Hewitt, Jose Acasuso, Florent Serra, Igor Andreev

    Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Roger Federer, Nikolay Davydenko, David Nalbandian, Juan Ignacio Chela, Robin Soderling (already lost), Marcel Granollers, Ivo Karlovic, Ernests Gulbis (already lost), Eduardo Schwank, Albert Montanes, Jurgen Melzer

    Semifinal Predictions: Rafael Nadal over Andy Murray and Roger Federer over David Ferrer

    Final Prediction: Nadal over Federer


    Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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Comments

thanks! i pretty much go on this site 2 read ur predictions so pleased 2 see MC up. Only thing, delPo meets Rafa in quaters, right? That draw is ruff enough for him. I was gutted when I saw it! But I guess playing against Nadal on clay is good pracitse this far away for RG. I digress. Also ruff putting Federer in slump busters with his results... but his last match was so god damn awful i forgive u for it. cos u know, u hard out need my forgiveness.

hope muzzah loses before semis!

kaitepai , 4/13/09 1:26 PM


Nice article- thank you for writing potential surprises every week now. Though Im gutted you dont see berdych as one :p Other than that, can anybody tell me how Monte Carlo works for rankings? If a player plays all 9 1000 tournaments, will his best 8 count or MC is regarded as a different tournament then masters?

orion , 4/13/09 1:58 PM


fed and rafa r the most experienced on clay at the moment....heavy favourites for finals for me......gonna be gruelling for rafa though....loads of good players in his side of draw...he has to play well to win(which he generally does on clay)

vrael , 4/13/09 4:23 PM


Orion - well I'm sure that MC is not regarded any differently than any other Masters Series event, but that's all I'm sure of. I have never been one to pay close attention to how the ranking system works, so I'm not sure about how many count, etc.

RickyDimon , 4/13/09 4:56 PM


good analysis..i hope rafa make sit 5 times in a row to beat anthony wilding's recod!rafa is the huge favorite but u never know since its just teh start..i hope rafa starts of well and gets into his usual rhythm soon...good picks aswell..if nalby makes it pass first couple of mtches i predict him to reach semis...my picks are rafa over nalby...roger over ferrer!!! rafa over roger!

vamosrafa , 4/13/09 5:22 PM


It is interesting that for a long (very long) time in tournament previews I didn't see Djokovic in bottom lists as a Momentum Builder, Slump Buster, Semifinal or Final predictions. Is he on Ignore list? :)

atg , 4/14/09 1:26 PM


atg - I can't remember but I doubt Djoker has been a MB or SB for quite some time now. He's been in neutral (by his standards) most of this season.

As for not being in the semis or final, he is in a tough quarter of the draw. But Almagro already being out should help him. His recent blowout loss to Ferrer, however, is not encouraging.

RickyDimon , 4/14/09 3:59 PM


It seems to me that with the clay, you need a warrior type mentality...never give up...and that's that the strong suit of some, and very much the strong suit of others.

Rafterfan , 4/14/09 8:08 PM


..and that's NOT the strong suit of some, and very much the strong suit of others.

Rafterfan , 4/14/09 8:17 PM


three of the four potential surprises have already gone in the first round Ricky.It's been a very tricky day...

sisterofnight12 , 4/14/09 9:23 PM


yep, wild day on Tuesday

Monaco and Montanes now assume the potential surprise roles of Robredo and Almagro, respectively. Karlovic, not so much. He will lose to Davy unless Davy is still hurt. Davy got a break with Karlovic winning.

RickyDimon , 4/15/09 12:15 AM


the two promising frenchmen ousted....stepanek gone...loads of upsets...hope rafa keeps calm nd plays his best..

vrael , 4/15/09 7:15 AM


i think the bet should be :
who can last for more than one hour infront of Nadal,and the one who lastes the longest time should take a medal of honor!

tennislover , 4/15/09 10:45 AM


Murray will reach the semis when he's never before reached a clay quarters?
Federer is a slump buster whose predicted to reach the final?
Right.

Course, I'll eat my words later if ur right but i doubt it

Jyocka , 4/15/09 3:34 PM


Jyocka - Have you looked at Murray's quarter? Who is Federer going to lose to before the final?

You have to make your own predictions in order to justify disagreeing about Murray and Federer. You can't just say Murray and Federer are going to lose without providing evidence of who they are going to lose to and why.

RickyDimon , 4/15/09 8:58 PM


Ricky do you still continue the prediction blog? Im still waiting for the third round bracket

orion , 4/15/09 10:58 PM


I made my second-round picks. I am about to post third round.

If ANYONE is doing well with picking this tournament, I'll be shocked. Crazy results.

RickyDimon , 4/15/09 11:21 PM


done: http://rdatp.wordpress.com/2009/04/15/monte-carlo-third-round-picks/

I'll paste here as well. And I included how many sets for each match for fun (slash for a tiebreaker if anyone else picks):

Round 3 winners:
Nadal over Lapentti in 2
Ljubicic over Bolelli in 3
Murray over Fognini in 2
Nalbandian over Davydenko in 3
Ferrer over Verdasco in 3
Djokovic over Montanes in 2
Monaco over Beck in 3
Federer over Wawrinka in 2

RickyDimon , 4/15/09 11:33 PM


Cant fault this prediction Ricky

ed251137 , 4/16/09 10:15 AM


i want davydenko over nalby...nd verdasco over ferrer......WHY???COZ I LOVE THEM..LOL....but ricky's predictions seem accurate though....have a ques ricky "is ferrer really better than nando on clay"???

vrael , 4/16/09 1:37 PM


vrael - I am confident that Ferrer, right now, is better than Nando on clay. But we won't find out for sure until the rain stops.

RickyDimon , 4/16/09 2:56 PM


federer will win for sure in the final against nadal
now he will take revenge against nadal and dis will be the right time
and his marriage will not affect his game for sure

saxenanalin , 4/16/09 3:56 PM


first set goes to wawrinka unless he chokes.

posmatrac , 4/16/09 4:30 PM


Well, I think we can safely say that Verdasco is better than Ferrer on any surface.

RickyDimon , 4/16/09 5:30 PM


verdasco destroyed ferrer....lol

vrael , 4/16/09 5:33 PM


"Who is Federer going to lose to before the final?"
Stan. *sigh*

Not to be vulgar, but since they both seem to be in form, I hope Nando beats the cr*p out of the Djoker.

mara2 , 4/16/09 8:45 PM


The players are being plagued by the Ricky Dimon prediction syndrome. I hope this means Djokovic will make it to the finals.

samprallica , 4/16/09 9:55 PM


This is a general question that has been bantered around other message boards. I figure Kelli, Cheryl or Ricky would know. What determines the order of play, say the top half vs the bottom half and who determines what time a player plays? I am not referring to the current fiasco in MC, but the rules that apply to ALL the tourneys.

fan4tennis , 4/17/09 4:34 AM


They try to play the most popular players to play at most convenient time for fans (after work hours or afternoon in weekends). They put their next round opponent in a similar time, one match before or later or at the same time on a different court. In other words, order of play is designed to maximize organizers profit.

orion , 4/17/09 1:01 PM


Yeah I don't know the details, but orion is mostly right. Next-round opponents almost always play at similar times of days. Other than that, I'm sure it's designed around fan interest, which in turn maximizes profit.

Obviously player nationality - as well as notoriety - has a big part in it. For example, Hewitt is always on Rod Laver at the Aussie Open and he also gets to play at whatever time he wants to play. Same with Agassi back in the day at the U.S. Open.

RickyDimon , 4/17/09 4:01 PM


Quarterfinal winners:
Nadal over Ljubicic in 2
Murray over Davydenko in 3
Verdasco over Djokovic in 3
Wawrinka over Beck in 3

Semifinal winners:
Nadal over Murray in 2
Verdasco over Wawrinka in 2

Champion:
Nadal over Verdasco in 2

RickyDimon , 4/17/09 4:30 PM


I seriously can't believe you picked Verdasco over Djokovic. Well, at least things are going as predicted from my side.

samprallica , 4/17/09 4:41 PM


djokovic,rafa gonna be at the finals for me

vrael , 4/17/09 6:27 PM


Ricky,I see you're also being in Verdasco bandwagon.I always knew that Djokovic would beat Nando on clay...

sisterofnight12 , 4/17/09 6:32 PM


Well, you were almost wrong. But Djokovic got the job done and, as vrael says, should be in Sunday's final against Nadal.

RickyDimon , 4/17/09 6:40 PM


would rafa be good enough tommorow???he must be very tired.....i dunno wat to expect from him...3 matches in 2 days is brutal

vrael , 4/17/09 6:54 PM


Andy also played 1 and a half match today rte!

Max , 4/17/09 9:03 PM


Jyocka: eat half your words!

deuce , 4/17/09 10:05 PM


When it comes to fitness Rafa is King!!! Most poeple thought the same thing in Australia......and looked what happened.

MonaLisa , 4/18/09 12:51 AM


Ricky,well,don't get me wrong.99% of the time,I respect your predictions and opinions but I just can't stand the fact there is a Verdasco bandwagon going on right now.Of course,he's improved drastically but now,people assume he would win whenever he plays one of the top4. I ate my words when Verdasco beat Ferrer 6-2 and 6-1,congrats to him but Nole is also good on clay and we shouldn't forget about him. Yes,Fernando was exceptional in Australia and played in one of the most wonderful matches I've ever seen but after that he lost against Roger in Indian Wells (yes,even Roger beat him;) ),against Murray in Miami and now against Novak in Monte Carlo.
Well,anyway,good for Novak.I hope he will be in the finals because I wanna watch a Novak-Rafa match on clay (not like the one in Benidorm though).

sisterofnight12 , 4/18/09 8:47 AM


A Novak-Rafa final is a juicy prospect but first Rafa has to dispatch Murray - and that is by no means a foreclone conclusion! Murray has proved the sceptics wrong about his performance on clay. Agreed it's still a bit ragged but he has managed to snatch some impressive wins this week. Also he is stalking Rafa relentlessly now and is VERY hungry for this win. Rafa has wobbled a few times in recent weeks but I am hoping to see him rise to the challenge this afternoon and give us some more of his vintage clay tennis.

ed251137 , 4/18/09 11:50 AM


Ricky- can we expect a prediction thingy for barcelona?

orion , 4/18/09 7:24 PM


vrael, nice touch.

posmatrac , 4/18/09 8:01 PM


orion - yes, approach shots and prediction game will be up on Sunday.

we need to get some more people to put some money where their mouths are and make some predictions!

RickyDimon , 4/19/09 12:34 AM


I like your predictions. I have the same method of predicting when I bet and I always win money. :D

torres9 , 4/19/09 1:09 AM


People find it easier to nag at your predictions rather than doing themselves lol

orion , 4/19/09 1:13 AM


Ricky,I will join your prediction game for Barcelona :)

sisterofnight12 , 4/19/09 11:13 AM


Barcelona fill-out-the-bracket game!

http://rdatp.wordpress.com/2009/04/19/barcelona-fill-out-the- bracket/

RickyDimon , 4/19/09 11:21 PM



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