Ricky Dimon

• Approach shots: Shanghai hopefuls in search of points

  2008-10-06 10:24:20
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  All eyes will be on Vienna this week as the 2008 race for the Masters Cup in Shanghai heats up to a boil. The outdoor tournaments have officially concluded for the year, and three indoor events beginning on Monday will continue the season's home stretch. Vienna, though, is where the most is at stake. Shanghai contenders Juan Martin Del Potro, Stanislas Wawrinka, Fernando Gonzalez, and Gilles Simon are all on the brink of getting into the top eight. Fernando Verdasco and Tommy Robredo are also in Vienna looking for miracle finishes to 2008 to give them outside Masters Cup chances. That's not to say there is not plenty of intrigue left for the IF Stockholm Open and Kremlin Cup in Moscow, as it seems like almost everyone outside of the top four or so players is in action this week.
  
  

  IF Stockholm Open

  Where: Stockholm, Sweden
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 713,000 Euros
  
  Top Seed: David Nalbandian
  Defending Champion: Ivo Karlovic (not playing)
  
  Draw Analysis: The IF Stockholm Open field is by far the weakest of the three tournaments this week. That does not, however, mean that the event lacks any excitement. David Nalbandian is at the very top of the draw as the No. 1 seed and it will be interesting to see where his indoor game is at as he prepares to defend all kinds of points. The Argentine caught fire late last year to win the final two Masters Series tournaments in Madrid and Paris. Injury-plagued Joachim Johansson, meanwhile, is coming out of retirement to play in his home country. Does he still have the talent to compete at the ATP level?
  
  If Johansson can come close to recapturing the form that took him to the semifinals of the 2004 U.S. Open and upset another big server in Nicolas Mahut, he could face Nalbandian in round two. The other Johansson, Thomas, is also in the top half of the draw and is one of few threats to Nalbandian. Other than that bunch of players and perhaps No. 3 seed Jarkko Nieminen-who has not been producing inspirational tennis of late-this section is riddled with clay-court specialists. That's not exactly a recipe for success on indoor hard courts. Barring a massive upset by JoJo, ToJo, or Mahut, Nalbandian should find himself in the title match.
  
  Bidding to join him there out of a slightly more dangerous bottom half of the draw will be second-seeded Mario Ancic, No. 4 seed Robin Söderling, and unseeded Kei Nishikori. Söderling has always played by far his best tennis indoors (including two runner-up finishes earlier this season) and he will have the Swedish crowd behind him. Ancic appears to have an easy draw until the quarterfinals and his serve makes him dangerous on fast hard courts, but the injury and illness bugs have bit him once again recently. Nishikori also has a favorable draw and should be able to set up a quarterfinal clash with Ancic. The winner of that potential showdown should face Söderling for the other spot in Sunday's final.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Go ahead and count on two seeded players (at least) getting bounced in the first round of this tournament. Nishikori, who reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open and also won a title in Delray Beach earlier this year, will "upset" slumping Marcel Granollers without any trouble. The No. 8 seed did well for himself on clay this season, but he has done absolutely nothing on the hard stuff. Also look for Thomas Johansson to treat his Swedish fans to a victory over seventh-seeded Albert Montanes. The Spaniard, like his countryman Granollers, is a non-factor on slick surfaces. Johansson has won just two matches since the end of the clay season, but he can beat Montanes on hard courts even without playing anywhere close to his best.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): None
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Mario Ancic, Jarkko Nieminen, Marcel Granollers, Dominik Hrbaty, Joachim Johansson
  
  Semifinal Predictions: David Nalbandian over Arnaud Clement and Robin Söderling over Kei Nishikori
  
  Final Prediction: Nalbandian over Söderling
  
  

  Kremlin Cup

  Where: Moscow, Russia
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: $1,049,000
  
  Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
  Defending Champion: Nikolay Davydenko
  
  Draw Analysis: With three tournaments taking place this week, players have a smorgasbord of options in terms of where to take their talents. As a result, it's no surprise that the Kremlin Cup in Moscow will have a distinct Russian flavor. Nikolay Davydenko is the top-ranked player on hand and he is joined in the seeded ranks by fellow Russians Igor Andreev (No. 2), Mikhail Youzhny (No. 3), Dmitry Tursunov (No. 5), and Marat Safin (No. 7). Igor Kunitsyn, who reached the semifinals of the Legg Mason Classic this summer, and Teimuraz Gabashvili could also thrill the crowd with strong showings, although Gabashvili and Youzhny have to square off in round one.
  
  In the top half of the draw, Davydenko should have no trouble getting to the quarterfinals, where he could meet Safin. Unless Safin comes out of nowhere for a rare incredible performance, Davydenko appears poised to breeze into the semis. Youzhny, No. 8 seed Janko Tipsarevic, and Viktor Troicki have the best chance of preventing the No. 1 seed from reaching the final.
  
  It could come down to two Russians and two Frenchman in the other half. Potential semifinal showdowns are Andreev vs. Tursunov and No. 6 seed Michael Llodra vs. No. 4 seed Paul-Henri Mathieu. Andreev is in the midst of a great season, but Tursunov is better on fast hard courts. Tursunov is coming off a title in Metz, France on Sunday as he beat Mathieu in a three-set final showdown. Llodra won two indoor titles at the beginning of 2008, but Mathieu is riding the momentum from Metz. Unseeded Robby Ginepri could make some noise in the bottom section of the draw, but he is not in especially good form at the moment, so look for the seeds to advance.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Qualifier over Marat Safin. You can pencil the qualifier into round two before even knowing who it's going to be. That's simply how bad Safin is at this point in his mercurial career. Just consider his results since Wimbledon: second-round loss to out-of-form Potito Starace in Bastad, second-round blowout loss to Stanislas Wawrinka in Toronto, first-round tank-job against Tursunov in Cincinnati, quarterfinal loss to unheralded Denis Gremelmayr in Los Angeles, first-round retirement to Fabio Fognini after one set in Washington, D.C., second-round tank-job against Tommy Robredo at the U.S. Open, and first-round loss to 131st-ranked Philipp Petzschner in Bangkok. Unless he gets an outrageously favorable draw, Safin will wave an unceremonious goodbye to the Russian crowd after one match.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Paul-Henri Mathieu, Dmitry Tursunov, Dudi Sela, Viktor Troicki
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Mikhail Youzhny, Marat Safin, Robby Ginepri, Julien Benneteau
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Nikolay Davydenko over Viktor Troicki and Michael Llodra over Dmitry Tursunov
  
  Final Prediction: Davydenko over Llodra
  
  

  Bank Austria Tennis Trophy

  Where: Vienna, Austria
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 674,000 Euros
  
  Top Seed: Stanislas Wawrinka
  Defending Champion: Novak Djokovic (not playing)
  
  Draw Analysis: The question as of Sunday afternoon is whether or not Juan Martin Del Potro will pull out or stay in. Del Potro has played a ton of tennis recently, having won four consecutive tournaments following Wimbledon, reaching the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open, and finishing runner-up in Tokyo last week. He did not feel well throughout his surprising loss to Tomas Berdych in the final, but he did start playing better in set two. Del Potro is ninth in the 2008 race to Shanghai so that could be enough incentive for him to pick up his rackets yet again, but at the same time he also has two Maters Series events coming up to give him chances. If the Argentine plays, he is the clear favorite to win his fifth title of the season in Vienna.
  
  If Del Potro pulls out, the draw opens up considerably for everyone in the bottom half. No. 5 seed Fernando Verdasco, a potential quarterfinal opponent for Del Potro, would be one of the beneficiaries. Little-known Austrian wild-card Martin Fischer certainly wouldn't mind a Del Potro withdrawal. He is scheduled to play him in round one. Fernando Gonzalez and Gael Monfils are both in the last quarter of the draw and they are arguably the second and third favorites to win this whole tournament; first and second if Del Potro is absent. Dangerous unseeded threats Philipp Kohlschreiber, Radek Stepanek, and Ernests Gulbis will look to wreak havoc in this section as well.
  
  The top half of the draw looks completely up for grabs. The playing field there is both talented and level. For example, No. 4 seed Ivo Karlovic could just as easily make the title match as he could lose in the first round to Juan Carlos Ferrero. Same goes for seventh-seeded Gilles Simon, who faces Eduardo Schwank in his opening match. No. 1 seed Stanislas Wawrinka could have his hands full with qualifier Philipp Petzschner in round one, and the Swiss will have a tough time as the favorite throughout his quest to the tile, as the top half also boasts sixth-seeded Tommy Robredo, Carlos Moya, Jurgen Melzer, and Feliciano Lopez.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Juan Carlos Ferrero over Ivo Karlovic. For the record I am picking all eight seeds to reach the second round, but there are a couple of upsets that could happen. Karlovic lost a straight-setter to Sam Querrey in the third round of the U.S. Open and then struggled in two hard-court singles wins against Brazil in Davis Cup. Last week he trailed Marcos Baghdatis when the Cypriot retired due to injury, and followed that lucky effort up with a straight-set loss to Carlos Moya. Ferrero has been sidelined with recurring physical problems recently, but earlier this moth he won two matches in Beijing before taking Andy Roddick to three sets. The Spaniard does a great job of taking balls early so he possesses an outstanding return game, and that will help his chances against the big-serving Karlovic. Also keep an eye on Simone Bolelli vs. Fernando Gonzalez and Eduardo Schwank vs. Gilles Simon. Gonzalez can either be incredible or terrible on any given day, while Simon is not as on-fire as he was this summer and fast hard courts can give him trouble.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Juan Martin Del Potro, Gael Monfils, Carlos Moya
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Ivo Karlovic, Fernando Verdasco, Guillermo Canas, Stefan Koubek, Ernests Gulbis, Filippo Volandri, Ivan Ljubicic, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Feliciano Lopez
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Carlos Moya over Tommy Robredo and Juan Martin Del Potro over Gael Monfils
  
  Final Prediction: Del Potro over Moya
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

Tell a friend »

Comments

Write comment

You have to be logged in to comment. If you do not have an account, click here to register. It only takes a minute and you'll be redirected back to this page.

Username:

Password:

Ricky Dimon

Archive

Poll

Articles - Latest commented

• 
  3
  Show me the money!
  

  janhavi, Nov 21, 2008 1:53 PM

• 
  8
  Davis Cup preview: Spain vs. Argentina
  

  janhavi, Nov 21, 2008 5:53 AM

• 
  5
  Big finish in Macao for Federer with Asian exhibition payday
  

  james007, Nov 21, 2008 3:46 AM

• 
  3
  Serbia stands at the top of tennis after 2008 season success
  

  Avalaine, Nov 20, 2008 9:06 PM

• 
  7
  Federer beats Blake at Showdown of Champions
  

  james007, Nov 20, 2008 8:03 AM

Blog - Latest commented

• 
  38
  Top ten "what were they thinking" moments in 2008 Part II
  

  gordana, Nov 21, 2008 9:50 AM

• 
  16
  Top ten "what were they thinking" moments in 2008 Part I
  

  tennisfan2, Nov 12, 2008 4:24 AM

• 
  13
  Federer's finest 5
  

  elle, Nov 10, 2008 2:11 AM

Tell a friend

Other tennis links

• www.atptennis.com
• www.itftennis.com
• www.tennis.com
• www.tennisnews.com
• More links...