Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: February March 13-March 23 Edition

  2008-03-12 09:11:00
  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. He previews all tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  Fear not, tennis fans! There’s a reason why only one tournament is taking place this week. It’s the Masters Series in Indian Wells and other than the four Grand Slams and some of the other Masters events, this is as big as it gets. All the big players are in California (USA) for what should be a wildly entertaining 11-day stretch (starting Thursday) of tennis. So hunker down and buckle up for the first huge tournament since January’s Australian Open.
  
  Pacific Life Open (Masters Series)
  Where: Indian Wells, California
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: US $3,589,000
  
  Top Seed: Roger Federer
  
  Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal
  
  Draw Analysis: In what seems like a long time, it looks like Roger Federer finally has an easier road to a tournament final than Rafael Nadal. Third-seeded Novak Djokovic—unlike at the Aussie Open—is in Nadal’s half, and Nadal could play Dubai runner-up Feliciano Lopez in the third round and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the runner-up Down Under, in round four. While Federer won’t have an easy time of it by any stretch of the imagination, he should be able to cruise through the early stages of the tournament. It will not get tricky until the quarterfinals, where the world No. 1 could meet either nemesis Andy Murray, who beat him in the first round of Dubai, or Andy Roddick, who won the Dubai title. Assuming Marat Safin does not suddenly catch fire, there’s nothing much else to speak of in Federer’s section. In Nadal’s draw, the fourth and final quarter of the field, streaking players Robin Soderling and Robby Ginepri look to wreak havoc on the seeds.
  
  Novak Djokovic is the clear favorite in the third quarter of the draw, but his potential run to the semifinals is far from smooth. 2007 Indian Wells and Miami sensation Guillermo Canas lurks in that section and the Argentine appears to finding his form just in time after missing the early part of 2008 with a wrist injury. Fifth-seeded David Ferrer was simply awesome last year, and while he is yet to enjoy that same success this season, he could regain it at any time. The Spaniard has on-fire Michael Llodra nearby, and either Marcos Baghdatis or Tomas Berdych would most likely be his fourth-round opponent, but anything short of the quarterfinals would be a disappointment for Ferrer.
  
  Nikolay Davydenko’s quarter, not surprisingly, looks like a complete and utter free-for-all. Some major talents are in that section; among them David Nalbandian, Fernando Gonzalez, and Mikhail Youzhny. All three of those guys, however, could just as easily flame out in their first matches as they could navigate through this part of the draw into the semifinals. Tennis Channel Open winner Sam Querrey, in-form Radek Stepanek, and the always tough Lleyton Hewitt also could make some noise in this second quarter of the draw. Also don’t forget about three unseeded players with power games in John Isner, Mario Ancic, and Ernests Gulbis. If any part of that trio is serving well and playing up to its potential, seeds could go tumbling.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Julien Benneteau over Tommy Haas. All 32 seeds get byes into the second round at the Pacific Life Open, so there is not a lot to choose from in terms of potential first-round upsets. At this point Benneteau over Haas would only be a minor surprise—if a surprise at all—considering the Frenchman’s strong showing in Las Vegas last week and Haas’ recent injury problems. The German missed the Australian Open and this month he has been slow to recover from off-season shoulder surgery and the controversial Davis Cup food poisoning. Not only did Benneteau win the Tennis Channel Open doubles title with compatriot Michael Llodra just a few days ago, but he also pulled off a huge singles victory over second-seeded Lleyton Hewitt en route to the quarterfinals. Perhaps Benneteau is not even the underdog in this contest. Either way, expect him to come through.
  
  Since it’s slim pickings for first-round upsets, I’ll add a few potential ones to look at in round two. If Ginepri can get past fellow American Vince Spadea in his opening match, he should be able to take out 19th-seeded Carlos Moya. Ginepri has reached three straight semifinals while Moya has not done anything to get excited about in 2008. If Janko Tipsarevic survives Nicolas Massu in the first round, the Serb should have little trouble with No. 15 seed Tommy Robredo. Hewitt could face a brutal matchup with Las Vegas champion Querrey in the 24th seed’s opening match, while 12th-seeded Fernando Gonzalez will have his hands full if Mario Ancic advances past Gael Monfils in the first round.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Nicolas Almagro, Andy Murray (two titles and a win over Federer in 2008), Andy Roddick (two titles this year, including Dubai last week), Sam Querrey (winner in Vegas last week), Radek Stepanek, Michael Llodra (two titles this season), Novak Djokovic (Australian Open champion), Robin Soderling, Robby Ginepri, Feliciano Lopez (Dubai runner-up), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (Aussie Open runner-up).
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Roger Federer, Tommy Robredo, Marat Safin, Ivo Karlovic, Fernando Verdasco (lost in second round of all five tournaments he’s played in 2008), Tommy Haas (coming back slowly from injury), Mikhail Youzhny, Gael Monfils (has not played since September), Juan Monaco (recovering from injury), Xavier Malisse, Dmitry Tursunov, Frank Dancevic.
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over Nikolay Davydenko and Rafael Nadal over Guillermo Canas
  
  Final Prediction: Roger Federer over Rafael Nadal
  
  COMMENTS AND YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS ARE APPRECIATED!

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